THE BUZZ over the past few weeks has been all about reaching a solution to the Cyprus problem by the end of 2009, something which one EU diplomat describes as just one of the “ideal scenarios” doing the rounds.
“There isn’t a timetable of any sorts but what you’re getting is people talking about ideal scenarios. There are suggested deadlines, and people are working back from those, saying if we want to get to a referendum by this point, we have to get to this stage by then,” said the EU diplomat.
“There are certainly no deadlines but people are thinking aloud, ‘where do we want to be in a year’s time’,” he added.
It might be wishful thinking by the two leaders and the diplomatic community, but the stars certainly seem to be aligning for such a development.
Last week, Hasan Ercakica, spokesman for Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat, laid out a three-phase plan for a solution by the end of the year. Talks until April, followed by a bout of give-and-take sparring, ending with a final plan by autumn.
Observers could point to the fact that Talat was equally overconfident that a solution would be found last year. But that was more about him pandering to his audience after Tassos Papadopoulos’ exit, and trying to get an early one up on newly elected President Demetris Christofias.
Either way, there are two, three events on the calendar that make 2009 that bit more crucial than 2008. There will be ‘parliamentary’ elections in the north this April, which the National Unity Party, founded by Rauf Denktash, is tipped to win. This could make the more hardline Dervis Eroglu ‘prime minister’ again.
As ‘president’, Talat will remain community leader and continue to participate in the talks. Besides, Eroglu does not have the broad shoulders needed to go against Turkey’s Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, should the latter increase his enthusiasm for a solution.
However, the first quarter of 2010 will bring ‘presidential’ elections in the north. This is where things could get tricky, as Talat and Christofias are considered the first couple to both be dedicated towards a solution. Any change there could see a serious obstacle to a solution.
“Talat’s election affects everyone. Christofias needs him in power. This is the first time both leaders are committed to a solution and Christofias would find it very, very difficult to negotiate with someone else,” said the EU diplomat.
Another key date is the end of year EU review of the Ankara Protocol which obliges Turkey to open its ports and airports to Cyprus-flagged ships and planes. This is a key stumbling block in Turkey’s EU accession path as the candidate country has shown no desire to meet its obligations before a solution.
At the same time, a number of countries are keen to see the Cyprus problem solved, removing one of the obstacles to Turkish accession while also clearing the path for more EU-NATO cooperation.
Even EU Enlargement Commissioner expressed confidence in a solution this year during his recent visit to the island.
“The understanding is if the Cyprus talks are going well, the EU could take a more lenient view, but if they ground to a halt, there might be difficult obstacles to the accession process,” said the diplomatic source.
“Technically, it’s not flexible but the EU wouldn’t want to spike the solution process if it’s going well. It won’t haul Turkey over coals on the Ankara protocol. One doesn’t ever quite know what the EU will do but it might give a delay.”
However, if there is no reason to hold off, then those less keen on Turkish accession could make a fuss.
So, the factors seem to be converging for greater momentum in the coming months to bang out a solution that both leaders can sell to their communities. The UN is not oblivious to this which is why it has gathered a team of experts to advise UN envoy Alexander Downer and assist in the talks, particularly the “second phase” of quid pro quo.
“Everyone’s aware of all the pointers, and everyone is keen to see momentum pick up, so it doesn’t drag on, including the two leaders. Downer’s team is here to do that and to help him,” said the diplomat.
But what kind of “ideal scenario” are people looking at exactly? Could we find ourselves in referendum fever again before Christmas?
“Different people hope to have a solution plan ready by the end of the year, others hope for a referendum. It gets revised all the time depending on the talks,” he said.
