THE FIRST round results do not leave any room for predictions as to either who the winner will be or even who will make it through to the second round.
This is the only safe conclusion that can be drawn from the latest poll published by Politis and run by Noverna.
In its last poll, Noverna was the first (and only) company to show Kasoulides first at the end of the first round.
This time round, DIKO candidate Tassos Papadopoulos is first with 30.5 per cent, DISY candidate Ioannis Kasoulides comes second with 30.1 per cent and AKEL candidate Demetris Christofias is third with 30.0 per cent.
Given that there is a statistical error of 3.2 per cent in the poll, the difference between the three frontrunners is negligible.
Only 6.7 per cent said they would cast a blank vote, not vote at all or declined to answer.
Thirteen per cent of AKEL voters said they would vote for Papadopoulos, while an equal dose of DIKO voters repaid the favour, saying they would vote for Christofias.
Eleven per cent of DISY voters said they would either vote for Papadopoulos or Christofias.
In tandem with previous polls run by RAI Consultants and Insights Market Research, EDEK voters seem to be the least convinced as to their party’s choice of candidate, with 28 per cent saying that they would not vote for Papadopoulos.
Refugees showed a preference for Christofias (36 per cent), then Kasoulides (30 per cent) and finally Papadopoulos (27 per cent).
The opposite occurs with the non-refugee voters.
Thirty-three per cent vote for Papadopoulos, 30 per cent for Kasoulides and 27 per cent for Christofias.
As for how the two sexes vote, Kasoulides wins most of the male vote and Papadopoulos wins most of the female vote, both with 34 per cent.
The regional distribution vote breakdown shows a clear lead for Kasoulides in Nicosia, Papadopoulos achieves the same in Limassol-Paphos, while Kasoulides and Christofias are both at 34 per cent in Larnaca-Famagusta, where Papadopoulos polled a modest 18 per cent.
The second round predictions show Kassoulides being beaten by both his rivals – a finding which has been universal across published polls until now.
Papadopoulos has a 6.1 per cent lead over the DISY candidate, but only 2.4 per cent separates Christofias from Kassoulides.
It’s almost a dead heat between Papadopoulos and Christofias too, the former winning 40.1 per cent and the latter 38.4 per cent.
Of particular interest were people’s responses to the question: “Who would you definitely not vote for?”
DISY voters would not vote for the other two candidates, almost in equal measure.
DIKO voters were less likely to vote for Kasoulides than for Christofias.
The paradox here is that the voters of the party which sports the traditional logo of conservative parties the world over (the torch), would rather vote for a candidate of the left than of the right.
AKEL voters’ attitudes were no less queer: although they would rather vote for Papadopoulos than for Kasoulides, the percentage who would vote for the DISY candidate has shown a significant decline since last month.
In December, 58 per cent said they would not for Kasoulides, whereas now 46 per cent would not.
The conclusion vindicates political theorists who argue that the traditional left-right spectrum has been eroding ever since the end of the Cold War less than 20 years ago.
