THE EUROPEAN Constitution is expected to get another hard blow today, as the Dutch go to the polls to vote on the constitutional treaty. Latest opinion polls in the Netherlands – one of the six EU founder member states – predict a ‘no’ vote of up to 60 per cent, with 17 per cent undecided and an expected 40-45 per cent turnout.
A Dutch ‘no’, only three days after the French ‘non’, will escalate what has been described as one of the biggest crises in the EU’s history. Many in Brussels and across the continent are now questioning not only if the whole procedure should go ahead, but also whether the Union can afford to continue with its present policies.
As in France, those in Holland who will say ‘no’ today are expressing dissatisfaction with their government, blaming it for the country’s stagnant economy. Moreover, they blame adoption of the euro for spiraling prices and disagree with the three billion euro per year their country contributes to the EU. Dutch sources said their contribution is 180 euros per capita, twice as much as that of Germany.
Citizens also feel they are losing their sovereignty to the EU and have many qualms about last year’s enlargement. They fear migration from the new member states, with the usual argument of “Polish workers taking our jobs” coming up repeatedly.
This fear makes them even more negative towards Turkey, an issue that has been highlighted in the campaign, contrary to what happened in France where it was a concern mainly at the start of the debate before fading away.
Turkey’s accession process, ironically launched when The Netherlands held the presidency last December, is completely rejected by the Dutch electorate, and is among one of the reasons why they are expected to say ‘no’ today. The Dutch feel they already have too many immigrants and that the Muslim population has proved difficult to integrate in their society.
The referendum in The Netherlands was not obligatory, but rather a political decision and the outcome has to be respected by Parliament, whose vote will follow.
The EU Commission, already numb and confused since Sunday’s French ‘non’, yesterday reiterated that there is “no plan B” and the ratification process must go on in all member states. The chief spokeswoman said member states were politically committed to having the constitution approved in their country – either by referendum or through Parliament – and this process should continue.
She admitted the EU was in a “politically complicated situation”, which will be discussed when the heads of states gather in Brussels for the June European Council (16-17).
In a bid not to affect the Dutch vote, the Commission has refrained from explaining a declaration in the Treaty according to which, if two years after its signing, “four fifths of the member states have ratified it and one or more member states have encountered difficulties in proceeding with ratification, the matter will be referred to the European Council”.
The European Parliament President has said that that if more than five countries vote ‘no’ to the Constitution, it has to be abandoned.
“I don’t want to speculate,” the spokeswoman said, adding the Commission would pay heed to the messages and that it was up to the member states to make conclusions and take decisions.
Tonight, the Commission will open to Brussels based correspondents and President Barroso is expected to make a statement after the Dutch Premier speaks to his citizens.
