WITH a new year come hopes of better things. Topping my list of those ‘things’ would be an agreed settlement in Cyprus. The peace dividend would be huge and perfect for a cash-strapped south and a north dependent on Ankara, as well as for Greece and Turkey. Imagine a united Cyprus at the centre of a region of cooperation involving energy, water, tourism, higher education. The list goes on.
A reunited Cyprus would be an economic magnet: billions would come flowing in to develop and market offshore gas, shipped to markets in the West via Turkish pipelines. Plentiful water supplies from Anamur in Southern Turkey would start reaching the island, with electricity not far behind. On offer are economies of scale, lower costs and more competitiveness. There is so much more. Turkish tourists would help to fill hotels in the south and tourist traffic would head the other way; goods from both sides of the current green line would be in stores and would help reduce the cost of living for consumers.
Of course, all this assumes rational behaviour by all Cypriots in order to optimise their own interests. And therein lies the biggest obstacle. Recent history is sadly not on the side of rationality as neither the Right [Denktash/Clerides] nor the Left [Christofias/Talat] have succeeded in removing division. Can both sides listen to reason? Mr Alexander Downer, the UN Special Representative, is probably the best hope. Can he pull off a miracle at the 11th hour? Downer is currently on tour trying to drum up support for a five-party conference (three guarantor powers plus the two Cypriot communities). Both sides have a lot to gain from a breakthrough. With a colossal debt overhang, the Greek Cypriots have no better option than investing in a settlement. The troika can provide encouragement, but it is up to everyone concerned. Over the next six months, two alternative options spring to mind:
Option A: Power sharing based on a new plan leading to a United Republic of Cyprus. However, after living apart for nigh on half a century, this no longer seems to be a realistic option.
Option B: Two microstates loosely tied in a soft federation. Each microstate would have its own public debt and budget and retain residual powers. There would be much to share through cooperation agreements regarding environment, crime, offshore resources, EU, etc.
Shared development of offshore energy would be one way to settle land and property issues, probably the single most contentious problem. Turkish Cypriots could use their share of revenues from hydrocarbons in order to settle the balance owing on land and property. The EU would welcome a Cyprus settlement with open arms as it would normalise its relations with Ankara and enable the EU to play a more constructive role in the Eastern Mediterranean . The permanent members of the UN Security Council, as well as the Secretary General would be delighted to see the Cyprus problem resolved at last.
The question that remains is this. Do the Cypriots have the will to opt for rationality and go for those huge peace dividends?
Ozay Mehmet is Professor Emeritus of International Affairs and Economics at Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada
