By Sofia Kannas
AS THOUSANDS of jubilant Cypriots from either side of the divide continue to cross the Green Line this week, the atmosphere on both sides has taken on a party-like quality.
But how long will it last? And where will it lead?
Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash warned on Tuesday that the wedding party would soon fizzle out.
“This friendship now, this honeymoon season, is very good, but one should not be mistaken that it is there to stay for ever because the political reasons for conflict still exist,” he said.
The honeymoon analogy has also been used by a diplomatic source in Nicosia: “At the endof the day I think gradually the Greek Cypriots will understand this circus that has been developing in the last few days and people will begin to get angry. This is the honeymoon period.”
The director of the Civilitas Research think-tank, James Ker-Lindsey, agrees that the decision by the Turkish Cypriot side to open up checkpoints and allow the two communities to mix again is a far cry from a solution to the Cyprus problem.
“It’s providing invaluable support to an overall settlement by giving the chance for people to get to know each other, to get to see where they used to live, and showing that there can be a good atmosphere between Greek and Turkish Cypriots. It’s a fundamental and very important part of the peace process, but there does need to be some sort of formal negotiation,” he told the Sunday Mail.
“There is very little sign at the moment that this is the prelude to the formulation of a comprehensive peace settlement.”
Ker-Lindsey also feels that although Ankara blows hot and cold when it comes to the Cyprus issue, Turkey must push for a solution if she wants European Union membership.
“We get all these mixed signals coming out of Turkey. But I think there is the growing realisation that Turkey needs a solution if her EU prospects are to be kept alive,” he said.
“I don’t think Turkey wants this situation after May next year, so we could see some solid moves made towards starting a proper settlement in the next six months. But it will depend on how this ‘experiment’ pans out.”
He stresses again the importance of a formal political process leading to a solution, and dismisses notions that popular will is enough to erase the Green Line.
“This is a vital step but it certainly doesn’t create the conditions for a solution — you’ve got to have a political solution as well. It’s not just a case of people power.”
He warns against comparisons with the collapse of the Berlin Wall which divided East andWest Germany for almost 30 years. The circumstances in Cyprus, he says, are fundamentally different.
“It’s tempting to draw such analogies, but there are a lot of other problems to be taken into account. Berlin was coming about because of wider geopolitical developments, mainly the collapse of the Soviet Union. There is also the fact that the Germans were never two separate peoples with a past of hatred and bloodshed.”
There is also a danger, he maintains, that the new freedom of movement between checkpoints may work against a comprehensive solution which would see the island properly reunited. Indeed, Ker-Lindsey fears rumoured moves by Denktash to hand back occupied Famagusta could play right into the veteran Turkish Cypriot leader’s hands.
“If Denktash did that, this would also be very problematic. It would be an extra step towards Denktash trying to manoeuvre the situation so that eventually the Greek Cypriots might say ‘maybe this idea of a functional confederation is a better idea’,” he said. “I think he’s rather banking on this happening — it may be that Denktash has made the calculation that this is the first step towards getting a solution of the type he has always wanted.”
Former government spokesman Michalis Papapetrou feels that unless President TassosPapadopoulos’ government acts decisively, the political benefits which could be reapedfrom recent developments will be lost. He is also critical of the President’s relative silence on the issue.
“There is a complete lack of leadership — all these very important things are taking place in our country and we have heard (almost) nothing from the President. If we leave things like this we are committing suicide. Out of this situation the political leadership is requested and required to take measures in order to turn this into a political benefit.”
He also insists that any solution must be achieved within the context of the peace plan put forward by UN Secretary-general Kofi Annan earlier this year.
“We have to invite the Secretary-general to call a new round of talks under the new realities that have been created by free movement,” he said. “The Annan Plan is valid now more than ever before.”
While most people feel the opening of the checkpoints has been beneficial in fostering anatmosphere of rapprochement between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities, there are some who feel that the opportunity to cross the dividing line has resulted in little more than Greek Cypriots being duped into spending thousands of Cypriot pounds in the north.
Former Chief Negotiator for Cyprus’ EU accession George Vassiliou is less cynical. He is not surprised that Greek Cypriots want to visit the occupied areas after nearly three decades of not being able to do so. Nor does he feel that Turkish Cypriots will be the sole beneficiaries of the new freedom of movement.
“If Turkish Cypriots want to see their standard of living increasing this can only be done if there is a solution. Without one, the acquis communautaire will continue to be suspended in the north and there will be no investment and no real development there,” he said. “So we spent some millions this last week, but this is not the solution — this kind of spending will not go far enough. Real development will not occur until the property issue is handled.”
Vassiliou also insists that the short-term financial benefits experienced in the north since the checkpoints opened on April 23 may whet the Turkish Cypriot appetite for a solution more than ever before.
“If you are used to a diet of bread and water only, then that may be enough to satisfy you. But if you are given some meat once a week and you like the taste then you will want some more. But (they) can only have meat every day if there is a solution. The Turkish Cypriots must put pressure on Denktash, and show him that they want more.”
Like Papapetrou, Vassiliou is adamant that the Annan Plan is entirely valid, and he believes that regardless of Denktash’s opposition to it, any future solution will be based on this blueprint.”This is the plan that the UN has proposed and the EU accepted so there is no other way,there is no other plan,” he said. “What Denktash wants is recognition of his so-called state and to keep what he has essentially taken by force: this will never happen.”
Sociologist Nicos Peristianis feels that once the initial euphoria of being able to visit the north has worn off, Greek Cypriots will be faced with a choice.
“In a month’s time, maybe once people have visited their houses once or twice, there will be a dilemma: will people accept that these houses now belong to someone else, will resignation prevail, or will we see them pushing harder to get back these properties?”
He believes that while most visits to the north so far have been made by refugees, access to the ‘other side’ will soon lead to business and cultural networking between the two communities which will precede any political solution.
“What we must work on now is how we can move towards a more comprehensive relationship between the two communities. This doesn’t necessarily mean a solution,though,” he said. Peristianis anticipates instead an intermediate phase during which Greek and Turki
sh Cypriots show they can live and work in harmony despite friction between their respective governments.
“I believe we will se
e an ‘in-between’ situation in which organisations and people are communicating and pushing things forward even though the two states — the one recognised and the other not recognised — are having difficulty coming to an agreement.”
Whatever the future may hold for the Cyprus problem, most people would agree that the signs have never been so encouraging. And most would also agree with George Vassiliou when he insists that the movement across the borders has destroyed once and for all the Denktash myth that Greek and Turkish Cypriots cannot live together:.
“instead of killing each other we are kissing each other,” he said. “The people are ready for a solution and this is what we should have.”
The Cyprus Mail is the only English-language daily newspaper published in Cyprus. It was established in 1945 and today, with its popular and widely-read website, the Cyprus Mail is among the most trusted news sites in Cyprus. The newspaper is not affiliated with any political parties and has always striven to maintain its independence. Over the past 70-plus years, the Cyprus Mail, with a small dedicated team, has covered momentous events in Cyprus’ modern history, chronicling the last gasps of British colonial rule, Cyprus’ truncated independence, the coup and Turkish invasion, and the decades of negotiations to stitch the divided island back together, plus a myriad of scandals, murders, and human interests stories that capture the island and its -people. Observers describe it as politically conservative.
