THE GREEK Cypriots have just been fatally foolish. It is going to be horrendously difficult to persuade any of the outside players, let alone all of them, to give the Greek Cypriots a second chance. I can assure everyone that the coming few months will be very difficult for the Greek Cypriots.
The ‘OXI’ mentality of Greek Cypriots will end on Saturday, April 24. It is not enough simply to write that their decision will be viewed with incredulity, but, once the campaign that has been waged, these past few days becomes widely publicised and known to the rest of Europe’s citizenry, that ‘OXI’ and the people who have actively campaigned for it will be viewed with disgust. The other 24 nations of the European Union have worked decades (in some cases) to try to erase racism, prejudice and xenophobia from their societies; in 1997 Slovakia’s future membership was even in doubt for a period because of it, yet in the Republic of Cyprus many people’s attitudes remain little more than mediaeval. From Monday, April 26, this will cease – otherwise the Greek Cypriots are in for a very rough time.
The real losers from this result are the silent, decent majority of Greek Cypriots, many of whom have been intimidated or shamed into voting ‘no’. The victors have been the nasty 15 per cent of the population who in any other EU state would be on the political fringe and largely, because of their extreme nationalist views, excluded from the debate. The European Union will now have to spend millions of euros over the coming years to reduce this nasty element down to the 2-3 per cent of the population that normally hold similar views in other member states.
President Papadopoulos is about to enter very stormy seas. Many have probably already concluded that he is not a man who will be able to lead his community into a reunified Cyprus. Key actors on the Greek Cypriot side will have to consider during the summer, just how much of a liability to the island’s international credibility he has become.
For Ankara, the result is a diplomatic and political triumph. Tragically, for the Greek Cypriots, this makes any solicitation to be given a second chance such a sheer cliff to climb. Prime Minister Erdogan’s government will now be able to operate without an iota of international pressure (or expectation) regarding Cyprus. The embargo against the Turkish Cypriots will very soon be lifted and if only a couple of countries recognise the ‘TRNC’ in the coming days or weeks, the momentum could very soon become unstoppable. What influence will Papadopoulos, who could only send a civil servant to Brussels (what a spectacular insult) for the preparatory donors’ conference, be able to command?
Yet, the truth is that I believe, very strongly, that the Greek Cypriots should be given a second chance to vote in favour of the Annan Plan and reunification – although the Turkish Cypriots will, themselves, have to be reconsulted to see whether they are still interested in living with the Greeks. Second chances are not new to member states of the European Union. Denmark voted ‘yes’, second time round, to the Maastricht Treaty; Ireland voted ‘yes’, second time, to the Nice Treaty. All Greek Cypriots will, therefore, deserve to be given the same opportunity. I do not believe that this would be a waste of time, on the contrary.
There were two very good reasons why many decent Greek Cypriots voted ‘no’. First, many did not trust the sincerity of Ankara’s claim to be in favour of reunification.
Many suspected that Ankara little more than gambled in favour of the likelihood that the Greek Cypriots would vote ‘no’. Second, in the final text, a reversal from the commitment of earlier drafts to eventual full demilitarisation of the island and, hence, the complete withdrawal of Turkish forces, affected very badly the psychology of many Greek Cypriots. In the end, the maximum possible number of 650 (as per the Treaty of Alliance), although small in number mattered not a jot. What only mattered was the symbolism.
Thus Ankara’s commitment towards reunification should be demanded. Only by doing this will the European Union in its widest sense be given a clear signal that Turkey has truly embraced the types of values that the EU holds so dear. Whether, though, it will be possible to address any single item in the plan (forget, for good, any further re-negotiation) – I would suggest only the question of full demilitarisation – and what Ankara will have to be given in return are, in diplomatic terms, frighteningly difficult equations to solve. There is only a tiny hope that all of this will be achieved, but we need to try all the same.
In order to avoid public holidays that have been hijacked by ‘patriots’ and to avoid the elections of others, the best time to hold a second referenda would be in September. However, there may simply not be enough time, during the spring and early summer, to realise this and November (the second best) may yield neither sufficient interest nor acceptability. Whenever the vote, should it prove possible, one thing will have to be made crystal clear to Ankara: that after the vote and in the event of a ‘no’ from either side the Cyprus problem will never be put to it again and that, therefore, it will be removed, even unofficially, from being any reason to hold up Turkey’s future membership of the EU.
On Saturday, April 24, history will probably write, the Greek Cypriots were fatally foolish. The prospects of realising what I have outlined above may be little more than 10 per cent, but for the sake of all Greek and Turkish Cypriots, representing all shades of political opinion, we should be willing to try.
Dr Tim Potier is the executive director of the policy think tank ERPIC (www.erpic.org) and also assistant professor of international law and human rights at Intercollege, Nicosia
