AN ICE-FREE Arctic by the end of the century, irreparable damage to the planet’s climate systems within a decade, northern Europe facing Canadian-style winters as the Gulf Stream switches off, north America plagued by tropical diseases as the temperatures rise. These are just some of the terrifying predictions being bandied around as the world convenes in Montreal in an attempt to rein in the increasingly frightening effects of climate change.
Not all the scare stories will necessarily come to pass. Some projections will (one hopes) be worst-case scenarios, which we will thankfully be spared. The sceptics, led by the United States, will point out that climate change is part of the natural cycle on Earth, that we have had our ice ages and our droughts long before the combustion engine and the coal fired power station were conceived.
Whatever the cause, the reality of climate change is now hard to dispute. The World Wildlife Federation this week issued a report showing that 2005 was shaping up to be the worst ever for extreme weather, with the hottest temperatures, most Arctic melting and worst Atlantic hurricanes, to list but the most prominent.
This is not an issue that can be tackled piecemeal. Yes, we all have our role to play, and small things like switching off unnecessary electrical appliances or minimising use of our cars can and do make a difference. But even if committed individuals retreat into a pre-industrial eco-existence, it will make little difference as long as America continues relentlessly pumping out greenhouse gases, with the fast-developing economies of China and India following suit.
This is why it is so important to reach agreement on global action to cut emissions in Montreal this month. A half-baked deal may seem tempting to the professional diplomats at work, but all would do well to remember that time is of the essence. By the time we meet to reconsider five years down the line, it may be too late to reverse the damage.
If nothing else, perhaps the cynics would do well to ponder the future of a world without fossil fuels, not because long-haired ecologists will have taken over the world, but because a finite resource is fast running out. Opponents of emissions curbs argue they will limit growth, but so will the gradual exhaustion of the world’s oil reserves. Ironically, the interests of the environmental lobby and the big corporations will overlap, forcing urgent research into alternative energies.
Whatever our standpoint, this is no longer an issue we can ignore. It doesn’t just concern some distant future, it will affect our own lifetimes, let alone those of our children and grandchildren. We can only hope the politicians wake up before it is too late.
