WITH just under three weeks left before Turkish Cypriots go to the polls to elect a ‘government’ for the second time in just over a year, an opinion poll published in the north’s top-selling daily Kibris claimed yesterday that Mehmet Ali Talat’s Republican Turkish Party (CTP) would be first past the post with almost 36 per cent of the vote.
If the poll, carried out by market researchers KADEM, proves accurate, the CTP will gain 20 seats in the north’s 50-seat ‘parliament’, meaning Talat will again be forced to seek at least one coalition partner if he is to lead a workable administration.
Talat currently remains ‘prime minister’ of the north, but was forced to call an election after defections from his CTP ‘united forces’ alliance and coalition partners eroded his majority in the wake of last April’s referendum on the Annan plan.
The predictions for the February 20 election nevertheless show a remarkable similarity to the result of the December 2003 election, which saw Talat form a coalition of convenience with political rival Serdar Denktash’s DP.
While Talat has always presented himself as a force for reunification of the island, Denktash is well known for his separatist convictions.
The staunchly separatist National Unity Party (UBP), led by ex-‘prime minister’ Dervish Eroglu, is set to come in second with 32 per cent of the vote, according to the survey, giving it 18 seats – identical to the position it currently holds.
Should KADEM’s predictions materialise, a coalition between the UBP and DP would be impossible, as the two parties are set to hold just 25 of 50 seats – not enough to form an effective administration.
Similarly, a coalition between the CTP and Mustafa Akinci’s pro-settlement Peace and Democracy Movement (BDH) is ruled out by the poll, as Akinci’s party appears destined to win just five seats – again totaling just 25 seats, insufficient for effective governance.
With a coalition between the CTP and UBP virtually unimaginable, the only remaining workable formula seems that of a repeat of the current status quo under Talat and Dentash.
According to the opinion poll, which was based on the responses of 6,370 citizens of the north during November last year, three smaller parties, the left-wing Communal Liberation Party (TKP), the New Party (YP), dubbed the “settler’s party”, and the far-right Nationalist Justice Party (MAP) all failed to gain five per cent of the overall vote, the minimum requirement for electing a deputy.
That Turkish Cypriots seem set to reinstate their incumbent administration points either to a general sense of satisfaction with the way things stand under Talat and Denktash, or to a feeling that few or no alternatives exist. Naturally, if this opinion poll does prove accurate, Talat will claim that while there is strong public disappointment over the failure of the EU to keep promises, made after the north’s overwhelming endorsement of the Annan plan last April, his administration is not to blame.
