POLITICAL giants AKEL and DISY were yesterday left licking their wounds, as Sunday’s legislative elections saw resounding gains for President Tassos Papadopoulos’ DIKO, as well as partners EDEK and the European Party.
Some 446,000 people flocked to polling stations on Sunday, with around 11 per cent of registered voters abstaining. Nearly 10 per cent of those who did vote did not mark a preference, while a little over three per cent of the ballots were void.
Communist AKEL were the hardest hit, relinquishing two seats in the House while their support in the electorate dropped almost four per cent from the last elections. The party garnered 31.16 per cent of the popular vote (down from 34.71 in 2001), giving rise to some serious brainstorming for its strategy ahead of the presidential elections in two years’ time.
Opposition DISY meanwhile received 30.33 per cent of the votes (nearly four per cent less than five years ago) and had to settle for 18 seats in parliament.
But it was not all bad news for the right wing party, considering that in actual fact they had just 15 seats before Sunday’s elections – four of their deputies having left the party in the wake of the April 2004 referendum. It might even be argued that DISY held its own.
But the biggest winners on Sunday were ruling DIKO, the party headed by President Papadopoulos. They gained an impressive three per cent of the voting public, but perhaps more importantly added two more seats in the House, bringing them up to 11. The party has traditionally fared better when in power.
And socialists EDEK also had good reason to celebrate, gaining one more seat (five now) and increasing their ratings by almost three per cent.
But all things being equal, perhaps the strongest showing came from newcomers European Party, a fusion of the New Horizons and DISY renegades. They received 5.74 per cent of the popular vote and three seats.
Both EDEK and the European Party are staunch supporters of Papadopoulos’ Cyprus problem policy.
The last available seat in the House went to the Greens, who came within a whisker of losing their representation in the House but ultimately saved the day.
And the little-known Movement for Free Citizens, led by Agriculture Minister Timis Efthymiou, grabbed a respectable 1.22 per cent of the vote.
Another setback for the opposition saw the United Democrats – founded by former president George Vassiliou – fail to enter parliament.
In geographic terms, the communist party came first in the Kyrenia, Paphos, Larnaca and Limassol districts, while DISY got the most votes in Nicosia and Famagusta, their traditional bastions.
The first tentative conclusions may be summed up as follows:
An endorsement of President Papadopoulos and his Cyprus policy
The government coalition – AKEL, DIKO and EDEK – has stood its ground, even increasing its participation in parliament by one seat (34 from 33).
The opposition is more or less in the same position as before.
In practical terms, AKEL and DIKO together maintain a clear majority in parliament (29 seats out of a total of 56), allowing them to pass bills even if all the parties are against.
Moreover, the coalition will most likely keep one of their own as House Speaker, as AKEL’s Demetris Christofias is almost certain to run for the job once parliament reconvenes on June 1. In short, DIKO and AKEL reign supreme when it comes to power politics inside the legislature.
According to the Constitution, parliament must meet within 15 days of the elections. During the first session, the successful deputies are sworn in. The next session (June 8) will determine the composition of the various parliamentary committees.
Yet for all its success, analysts believe the coalition may not survive the 2008 presidential elections. Disaffection is swelling inside AKEL, where party cadres are said to be unhappy with the President’s foreign policy. The results of Sunday’s elections must have accentuated these sentiments, since many feel the party’s poor showing arises from its collaboration with DIKO and from its half-hearted rejection of the Annan plan in April 2004.
Signs of dissatisfaction were evident even yesterday, if one reads between the lines of Christofias’ comments to the press. The AKEL boss looked less than thrilled before the cameras as he hinted that his partners in the government used political patronage to boost their numbers at his party’s expense.
Only a few months ago, Christofias named Defence Minister Koullis Mavronikolas – a member of EDEK – as the ‘chief purveyor of nepotism’ in the government, sparking a public row between the two partners.
This was also seen as an indirect swipe at Papadopoulos for doing nothing to stem these practices.
There is already talk of AKEL nominating a presidential candidate from its own ranks. This would be a radical and risky move, since breaking up the alliance with Papadopoulos would open up a can of worms. It would mean that neither AKEL nor any other party would be able to elect a President from the first round. That in turn would change the political dynamics entirely, since one could no longer safely predict which way EDEK and the European Party will swing.
Still, even without AKEL’s backing, Papadopoulos can feel reasonably confident ahead of the 2008 elections. Combined, DIKO and EDEK amount to 28 per cent of the electorate; add to that the possible support of the Greens, the European Party and the Movement for Free Citizens, and the figure rises to 36 per cent – a force to be reckoned with.
In this event, DISY would need a candidate that appeals to centrist and leftist voters. One name being touted is that of former Foreign Minister and MEP Ioannis Cassoulides. At any rate, commentators agree that nothing short of a masterstroke will return DISY to power.
Though aware of these scenarios, political analyst Christoforos Christoforou advised against reading too much into Sunday’s outcome.
“It’s too early to say how things will pan out in 2008. You have to be cautious with conjecture. Many things can change until then,” he told the Mail.
In his view, the situation should start clearing up around spring next year, while the municipal elections of 2007 would “provide better clues” as to the political landscape.
