THE DOOR is wide open for political alliances of every nature between parties of every creed and ideology, political analysts noted yesterday in the run up to the second round of the presidential elections.
Only 980 votes divided presidential hopefuls Ioannis Kasoulides and Demetris Christofias in the first round of elections, meaning any alliances made this week with the losing parties would go some way to securing victory on Sunday. However, even getting the backing of one or all of the losing parties (DIKO, EDEK, Greens and Evroko) would not guarantee the presidency, political observers warned yesterday.
“It’s difficult to say who will go with whom. Apart from excluding an Evroko-AKEL alliance where there is too big a difference, making co-operation highly unlikely, everything else is possible,” said elections analyst Christoforos Christoforou.
“No matter what decisions the leaders make, it doesn’t mean their voters will follow. Especially with these middle parties (DIKO and EDEK). Usually their votes are split anyway. Both parties have nationalist voters who won’t vote left-wing. Nothing is a certainty,” he added.
The analyst noted that in both parties, there were voters who would veer left, towards AKEL, those who would go right, to DISY and those who would follow the party line.
Christoforou highlighted the 1998 elections when DIKO’s vote was split, while EDEK was no different in terms of commanding party loyalty.
“Also the recent past will affect how voters vote. Some are still angry that Christofias left the partnership and so will vote blank or the other way,” he said.
Both Kasoulides and Christofias met with both EDEK and DIKO leaders yesterday, saying after the meetings that they discussed a range of issues regarding the policies and positions of each candidate.
However, Christoforou believed that candidates’ policies were less important than what they were offering the losing parties for their support in the second round.
“They put emphasis on their positions but what usually follows is ‘what will I get?’” he said.
“DIKO and EDEK talk about their positions on the Cyprus problem but they are more attracted to power. And they can go either way. In 1993, [Spyros] Kyprianou kept on saying he could not vote [Glafcos] Clerides and then ended up doing so and getting five ministers in government.
“The attraction of power governs over everyone. It is powerful enough to overcome past dislikes and differences,” he added.
“When it comes to sharing power, all doors and windows are open. We are talking about ministries, nominations in government and semi-government organisations. The core of power for DIKO has consistently been Nicosia where hordes of people were nominated, promoted, and hold important positions in government,” said Christoforou.
“Every family has one member in the public service. The role of the parties is to bring these jobs. It’s very important; it’s how they make their network of power,” he added.
Regarding the fringe parties, the analyst said the Greens and Evroko were discredited and unable to ensure party loyalty among their voters.
And for those freelancers who did not belong to any party, like former minister Georgios Lillikas, well, they would have a problem. “Those who don’t belong to a party won’t be a part of the marriages of power.”
Political observer Costas Apostolides said the first round of elections which left incumbent president Tassos Papadopoulos out of the race was an example of “democracy in all its glory” as people decided on their own who to elect.
Apostolides predicted that Evroko would no longer have a political future following the demise of the Papadopoulos government. He questioned how much Kasoulides could offer EDEK and DIKO who were likely to back former partner AKEL.
“But DIKO and EDEK are the least disciplined parties. By no means will their votes follow a deal if it is struck. It is impossible to predict who will win, that is the beauty of the whole thing.”
Speculation on what kind of deal was being struck between the former government partners was floating around the media yesterday. Some reports suggested that AKEL was willing to give DIKO six ministries (one more than it had while holding power), three for EDEK, and leaving two for itself. The same reports suggested Papadopoulos had been offered a role as negotiations’ adviser in the Cyprus problem and DIKO leader Marios Karoyan the House Presidency.
Political commentator Loucas Charalambous said AKEL’s biggest weapon was the “present” of being House President.
“I imagine he will give it to DIKO. I don’t believe Papadopoulos will agree to be adviser, he is too proud to do that after Christofias accused him of not negotiating. As to giving out six ministries, that is a joke. They’ll be giving DIKO a majority in Cabinet,” said Charalambous.
“Saying that, ministries don’t play a big role, you can easily make a Cabinet reshuffle in six months. The numbers are not the issue; the question is how will they present any co-operation to the people.”
Another rumour doing its rounds yesterday was that both Kasoulides and Christofias had offered European Commissioner Markos Kyprianou the Foreign Ministry. Watch this space.
