TWO PARTY leaders went to Brussels on Tuesday in an attempt to persuade representatives of different political groups at the European Parliament not to approve the direct trade regulation for the Turkish Cypriots. The response they were given, according to press reports, was that the European Parliament would not proceed to final approval of the regulation before the end of the year.
Speaking in Nicosia on the same day, the leader of the European People’s Party, Wilfried Martens took a more emphatic stand declaring that approval of direct trade could hinder the peace talks. His position, in essence, was not very different from that of the Greens and the Socialists back in Brussels who also agreed that direct trade could hinder the procedure. This was why assurances, that approval would be delayed until the end of the year, were given to the leaders of EDEK and AKEL.
In effect the Cyprus government was given a very polite ultimatum – if there was no Cyprus settlement by the end of the year, European Parliament would approve the regulation. The groups of the Greens and the Socialists did not subscribe to the widely-held view among the Greek Cypriot political leadership that the election of Dervis Eroglu would prevent progress from being made at the negotiations. Neither did the UN special envoy Alexander Downer, who announced, after meeting Eroglu on Monday, talks would continue from where they had stopped. The new Turkish Cypriot leader had accepted the Christofias-Talat agreements on the principles of a settlement and talks could resume by the end May, said Downer.
Although nobody would admit it, a time-frame has been set for the conclusion of talks. Brussels is prepared to wait until the end of the year the UN is probably looking at the same deadline, after which, it would probably give up its latest peace drive. The direct trade regulation would then be approved, the north would acquire a Taiwan-type status, Turkey would open a couple of ports and airports to Cyprus traffic and that would be the solution of the Cyprus problem.
We very much doubt that Eroglu would engage in filibustering when the talks resume because Ankara would not allow him to do so. As for President Christofias, he may protest about artificial time-frames, but he would finally realise that he is running out of time and that Eroglu would not do him the favour of throwing a spanner in the works. Turkey has gained too much by adopting what has been perceived by the outside world as a constructive approach to the talks, to surrender it at the eleventh hour.
The pressure is now on Christofias to reach a deal with Eroglu by the end of the year, because there is no way Brussels would be willing to put off the approval of the direct trade regulation again.
