BOTH LEADERS want a solution based on reunification, both leaders say time is of the essence, and both leaders accuse the other of stalling and distorting. So how close are we?
Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat says we’re close, but not close enough. Speaking during a visit to the Cyprus Mail offices last week, Talat said talks were progressing but not at the desired pace. He warned that failure to prepare the people for a solution before the referenda would end in disaster. “We will not be able to solve the problem and will create the conditions for permanent non-solution.”
For non-solution, read partition, the P-word that’s at the back of everyone’s mind but nobody wants to be heard uttering.
It’s hard not to feel sympathetic towards those who confess ignorance or apathy to the talks when all they hear coming from both sides is contradictions and recriminations. There are no red lines but watch you don’t cross over the crimson ones. Time really is of the essence but both sides are engaging in brinkmanship, using time as hostage to gain concessions.
In the words of Sheryl Crow, “No one said it would be easy, But no one said it’d be this hard”.
The Greek Cypriot side won’t accuse Talat of seeking a confederation outright, but maintain that he’s leaning in that direction on certain issues. According to a source close to the Greek Cypriot negotiating team, their counterparts are seeking derogations from the EU acquis to become primary law, prohibiting any recourse to the courts.
The Turkish Cypriots are also in favour of allowing each constituent state to enter into international agreements on issues already within their competences. For their part, the Turkish Cypriot team argues the federal government could have final veto over this, providing a system of checks and balances. The Greek Cypriots consider this bordering on the confederal.
One of the reasons both sides accuse the other of making proposals that go beyond the agreed parameters is the differing definitions they give to these terms. For example, does political equality mean numerical equality?
On “single sovereignty”, one of the criteria for a unified state, Talat has this to say: “They say in the contemporary world, these are obsolete terms, because sovereignty is actually now fragmented, even municipalities have it. There are tiers of sovereignty, so the idealisation of terms is not suitable, it’s not the right way to approach it.”
Talat believes President Demetris Christofias genuinely wants a solution but doubts he can manage it, given the mood of his local audience and party politics. “He wants a solution, but I have doubts whether he will manage getting there, that is the problem.”
On the other hand, it irks Talat that he stood his ground after taking a lot of flak within the Turkish Cypriot community for agreeing to a federation with “single sovereignty”, but that when Christofias received criticism for mentioning constituent states, “immediately the next day, he started to divert from that”. “This is a problem,” he added.
Progress is also hindered by the lack of a joint communication strategy between the two leaders, at least to promote the benefits of a solution, or highlight the downside of talks to grinding to deadlock which will mean continuing the status quo or letting partition settle.
“I always warn Christofias, we have to prepare our people, because they are going to vote in the end, so we have to give the impression that we are on the right track, get them thinking about it and discussing it,” said Talat..
The Turkish Cypriot leader highlighted that a repeat of 2004 when the Greek Cypriots felt that they didn’t have enough time to digest the Annan plan would lead to “disaster”. At the time, he argued, the Turkish Cypriot community had been adequately briefed on the general structure of the plan, while on the Greek Cypriot side, no such steps were taken because nobody believed Turkey or the Turkish Cypriot leadership would really go through with it.
Things will have to be different this time, said Talat, bearing in mind that the ‘NO’ campaign has a reputation for being better organised, more coordinated and always first out the blocks.
“We have to be careful, we have to work together, we need a joint communication strategy,” he said, noting that such collaboration would, at least, prevent the two from criticising and accusing each other in public while trying to reach an agreed solution.
The Turkish Cypriot leader acknowledged that convincing both communities would not be easy, given that the majority in his community want an independent state. The recent election of hardliner Dervis Eroglu is a case in point. “But this does not change the fact that when the time comes to make a decision, people will not insist on this first preference. They will definitely say we want this but it’s not possible, so the second option is an agreed solution,” he said.
It is crucial to maintain a positive climate before the referenda, he said. “This is why on our side, we’re trying to keep the momentum in favour of a solution, and I believe when the time comes to campaign, those in favour of a solution will be more powerful.” It remains to be seen what kind of a climate will prevail among the Greek Cypriot community if we reach the referenda phase.
Perhaps talking about referenda is jumping the gun a little, but according to Talat, if the two leaders lock themselves up somewhere and “close our eyes and ears to the other issues…I believe we can solve the problem”.
He maintains there is already a great deal of convergence on three of the chapters under negotiation, governance and power-sharing, EU affairs, and the economy, though agreement has yet to be found on the final details of the executive or on the sensitive issue of settlers.
Then territory, security and property remain. Talat considers property the most important obstacle due to the many years of division, particularly the latter ones. “It is a problem which will affect everybody. For many years, there were a lot of Turkish Cypriots who didn’t have anything to do with Greek Cypriot properties, now maybe altogether you’ll find 100 or 200 who don’t, not more than that.”
As for Turkey’s influence over the talks, Talat maintains Turkey has little or no interest in the finer details of a solution, apart from the issue of Turkish guarantees over the Republic. Although a recent survey showed that Turkish Cypriots were willing to consider alternatives to the Turkish guarantee, it appears this is something Turkey is not willing to entertain. It’s also of crucial significance to Greek Cypriots, as voiced by Christofias in his Independence Day speech when he reiterated that EU member states do not need “guarantees and custodians with rights of intervention”.
Another missing piece of the puzzle that promises to paint a picture of reunification is the inability of the two leaders to appeal to all communities on the island. As president of the Republic, Christofias will always refer to Turkish Cypriots in his speeches, given that technically, the Republic remains one, if somewhat suspended in parts. Transcending class and ethnicity also coincides with his ideological roots, regardless of whether his message actually gets across or not.
However, Talat will rarely speak directly to the Greek Cypriot community, in contrast to his chatty persona when dealing with individuals on the street. Even when invited, Talat will not attempt to give the Greek Cypriots confidence that he or someone like him could be a fitting statesman in a united federal republic.
“At the beginning, it is more crucial we should try to keep our respective communities on track, while not posing a threat to the other community,” he said.
Asked what his first step would be if made leader of a united Cyprus tomorrow, he replied: “There are many problems, the most important might be the environment.” But before that, Talat would set up the necessary organisations to ensure true reconciliation between the two sides, as well as implementation of the agreed solution.
On the face of it, it all looks pretty bleak, but Northern Ireland is a good example of how pale does not necessarily mean dead. Also, these two leaders have some history between them. They were, and reportedly, still are friends.
Talat described their general approach when dealing with their often divergent positions: “What happens when we meet is that first we quarrel on these issues, then we see there is no way out, so what can we do? We start to think that it’s better to stop this discussion and look further, because otherwise we’re not going to move.”
On that note, it might be fitting to end with the second half of that chorus by Sheryl Crow: “No one said it would be easy, No one thought we’d come this far.”
