FOR NEAR half a century, Cypriots have been hearing in one shape or form about the chasm that exists between the two communities on the island. Are things about to change and if so, why aren’t we hearing more about it?
Following the two leaders’ last meeting, the UN’s Alexander Downer noted that the two have agreed to more on paper than at any other time since 1974. And just in case our memories failed us, the Australian diplomat reminded that the final version of the Annan plan “had a lot of words in it but it wasn’t agreed”.
So, are we really closer to a settlement, after decades of stalemate and animosity? If so, what exactly are the two leaders doing in the talks?
President Demetris Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat have met 25 times so far since direct talks began last September. So far, they’ve discussed issues of government and power-sharing, property and EU matters. At their next meeting, which will likely take place after Talat’s visit to Washington and the ‘parliamentary’ elections in the north, the two will begin talks on the economy of a future unified state.
Downer all but confirmed on Friday that the talks are taking the shape of a three-round process. One EU diplomat noted, however, that this was not a “hard and fast” fact since no formal process has been fully agreed. Anything could happen to delay or change the course of the talks. The diplomat acknowledged that initial concerns the talks were going nowhere have been superseded by the momentum gained in recent meetings.
According to another source close to the talks, nobody expected the first phase to last so long. The two leaders will end the “first reading” once they close, albeit temporarily, the economy chapter, he said. The deal-breaking issues of security and guarantees, as well as territory, will likely be given a pass during the first phase, and introduced at the second or third “reading”.
Does this mean the two have reached agreement on everything else they’ve discussed? No, but they have agreed on a lot of issues of secondary importance, and listed the issues that they can’t agree on.
In the meantime, the two advisors George Iacovou and Ozdil Nami, along with a team of experts on either side, have been working on ironing out the differences identified in the first sessions. Experts on either side have been meeting regularly first separately and then together to find ways to overcome the impasse in each chapter.
Once the first phase is wrapped up, the experts will then present their proposals for bringing the positions closer together which the two leaders can formalise in the second phase of the talks. Some issues might not be touched upon until the final third phase, when the real bartering will begin, along with those issues still pending from the second round.
Downer noted that there has been a bit of “give-and-take” from the start but the heavy work will come near the end of the process.
As one diplomat put it: “I think we can expect a very busy summer. After that, we are likely to see, I wouldn’t say final but, a big push.”
There is much expectation from the international community for the talks to work out this time, as Downer noted. If there is no progress by the end of the year, it’s possible the international community will lose interest in the conflict, confirmed another diplomat.
On the talks, the biggest obstacles are in the key areas of governance, security and guarantees and property. There is still a long way to go on agreeing what kind of federal government Cyprus will have, while there has been some convergence on property though the two sides are still far apart. As for troops and intervention rights, these are big issues that cannot be dealt with in isolation but as part of a trading package. Another hot issue is the EU and Treaty of Accession. Will Cyprus have to re-enter the Union a second time under its new make-up? Will we see permanent derogations or temporary transitional periods in implementation of EU law? The above issues will be the hot potatoes of the give-and-take process.
Despite the difficulties that lay ahead, the two leaders have been a picture of tranquillity these last few months. Before every meeting, the two demand a private tête-à-tête, where they chat for up to 90 minutes without an audience, demonstrating the kind of relationship they have.
This may bode well for the future of the talks but one EU diplomat warned that more had to be done to pass on the message of goodwill and hope to the people.
“There are serious concerns about the lack of selling the process to either community. People are losing interest and enthusiasm. The message is not being pushed,” he said.
“There needs to be more confidence-building measures, like the four announced last week. There has been no perceived benefit since the opening of Ledra Street. Limnitis is key to this but there is merit in being more positive about what’s happened so far, and about the benefits, especially economic, of unification.”
According to a recent survey by the Centre for European Policy Studies, the results show that convergence on the core issues of the Cyprus problem is possible though it will be a hard sell to the people of both communities.
From talking to Cypriots across the divide, the local researchers revealed that a new security regime could serve to overcome the barrier that is the Treaty of Guarantee. They also concluded that alternative proposals on property, governance, rights and freedoms were possible to bridge the huge gaps on these issues.
“When delving into the details of a future plan, including the thorniest issues of the Cyprus settlement, the authors found that not only is a compromise feasible, but above all, by probing what citizens think, fear and desire, that new and creative ideas may be put to the service of the overall peace process on the island.”
The study also revealed that the three parties, DISY, AKEL and DIKO, had a similar proportion of supporters who would vote yes or no or were undecided about a new referendum. This clearly shows that ideology does not necessarily play a part and that those parties in favour will have their work cut out when selling the process and the ‘plan’.
Meanwhile, the Greek Cypriot side may have insisted on no deadlines, but in the back of everyone’s mind are a series of key events: the results of the municipal elections in Turkey, next week’s ‘parliamentary’ elections in the north, the EU-Turkey report in December, and the north’s ‘presidential’ elections slated for this time next year.
A huge factor in any progress will obviously be the type of solution the two leaders agree to but also how they choose to communicate it.
No one can predict the future, especially around these waters, but there is certainly hope outside the country, and perhaps from within, that this time, this may really be it.
