FACED WITH mounting criticism over falling living standards and a lack of progress on a solution to the Cyprus problem and EU membership, the Turkish Cypriot ‘government’ called a snap general election on Monday, prompting fears that a change in leadership in the north could further hamper efforts to reunite the island.
The move took many by surprise. After all, it is not usual for any government to call an election when its popularity is at an all time low.
But how likely is it that the ruling Republican Turkish Party (CTP) and its smaller coalition party, the Freedom and Reform Party (ORP), will lose the April 19 election? And more importantly, what affect will a change in administration have on Turkish Cypriot ‘president’ Mehmet Ali Talat’s ability to negotiate on behalf of his community?
“Recently Talat has sought to distance himself from the CTP, the party he comes from. This, I think, he is doing in preparation for a possible CTP defeat,” Talat’s former chief adviser Rasit Pertev told the Sunday Mail yesterday.
Pertev believes Talat will seek to continue in office, even if it means working with a hostile parliament, until the end of his term in April 2010, by which time he hopes to have sealed a deal with his counterpart Demetris Christofias.
But if the CTP is removed from office, Talat may not continue to have the relatively free hand he has enjoyed up until now, Pertev warns.
“There is a tradition that parliament is consulted during negotiations, but because the CTP dominated parliament that was not particularly necessary; Talat tended to simply inform parliament of progress. If things change, parliament will increase its demands on Talat. He will have to be more accountable and more consensual”.
Having to take into account the views of the political right, namely those of the National Unity Party (UBP) – the party which held political sway until the shift to the left prior to the Turkish Cypriot community’s backing of the last reunification initiative in 2004 – could feasibly influence the direction the Turkish Cypriot side takes at the negotiating table, says Dr Erol Kaymak, lecturer in international relations at Eastern Mediterranean University (EMU).
“In such a situation, the UBP will be emboldened, and agreements between the Greek and Turkish Cypriots, such as that of a single sovereignty for Cyprus, could be challenged,” Kaymak told the Mail.
In short, most agree that if the UBP win the upcoming election, the Turkish Cypriot side could thereafter pursue a harder, more nationalist, more separatist line in negotiations.
Of course, it is not only the Turkish Cypriot electorate that will decide on how Talat will approach negotiations; Turkey too will directly and indirectly influence his moves.
According to Kaymak, Turkey’s long-held desire for EU membership remains strong.
“The recent appointment of Egeman Bagis as EU representative is indicative of this and is a positive signal that they [the Turkish government] want to negotiate for [EU] accession in earnest, and that is something which strengthens Talat’s hand,” Kaymak said.
Like many in his field, Kaymak sees Turkey’s appetite for EU membership directly linked to its positive approach to a negotiated settlement to the Cyprus problem.
Turkey also faces local elections on March 29, and the results of these could have a crucial influence on the political scene in Cyprus. If the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) does well, it promises to step up its lumbering EU accession process by introducing a raft of reforms, says Dr Ahmet Sozen, head of the Cyprus Policy Centre and lecturer at the EMU.
“I believe this would be good for the current government and Talat as the AKP will not want to see great changes in north Cyprus’ approach to negotiations,” Sozen said, adding that while the Turkish government may not give open support to the CTP, it will probably give strongest backing to its coalition partner the ORP – a move that could help the CTP remain in power.
Such assertions, however, go against the latest opinion poll published in the north. According to pollster and market researcher Muharrem Faiz, the UBP are set to win a decisive victory in April by winning around 40 per cent of the vote. The CTP, on the other hand, will get only around 32 per cent, and even with ORP’s predicted 4.5 per cent, the incumbents will not be able to form a government.
Faiz explains the resurgence of the UBP as a result of the CTP’s failure to effectively manage the economy, which has been in significant decline since late 2006. A possible shift to the right, he adds, is also aided by around 30 per cent of the electorate, who he describes as “conformist, floating voters”, “reverting to form”. Interestingly, Faiz says the UBP will do better in the upcoming election if it does and says nothing.
“I think the more the UBP campaigns, the fewer votes it will get. It should simply sit back and pick up the votes of those disgruntled with the CTP”.
And people are most definitely disgruntled. Many public sector workers are still waiting for their December salaries, and Turkey is refusing to foot the bill. As Rasit Pertev says, “Probably the reason why they’ve called an election for April is that there will be no money to pay anyone after that.”
But what if the UBP win? Will it really mean the end of the CTP, Talat and the Turkish Cypriot community’s recent, more conciliatory approach to the Cyprus problem?
Sozer believes it will not.
“Even if [UBP leader Dervis] Eroglu wins and one day becomes president again, the Turkish government would still be able to manoeuvre him in any way it wishes. It would just be a little more difficult”.
Ultimately, the outcome of April’s general election in the north will rest on local elections in Turkey. If the AKP does well, it will press ahead with its EU project, and, as part of this project, give tacit backing to the current administration. But if thing go badly for the AKP, it could be a very different story.
