THE UN Secretary-General’s special envoy Alexander Downer briefed the UN Security Council about the Cyprus talks in a video-link with New York on Wednesday. Although he avoided making any predictions about the outcome of the talks, he remained upbeat about the prospects of an agreement reunifying Cyprus, “which is certainly within the grasp of the leaders”.
He did not say whether the leaders would reach out to grasp the agreement. For this to happen, “it requires a lot of courage and lot of determination,” he acknowledged, adding that “it is possible.” Downer, like all his predecessors lumbered with the Cyprus talks, has to be optimistic and look on the positive side, but he gave the game away on Wednesday by mentioning what was required for a deal.
If we are pragmatic we have to say that neither President Christofias nor Dervis Eroglu seem capable of showing the “lot of courage and the lot of determination” required for an agreement. These are not qualities readily associated with either man – certainly not in the quantities Downer spoke of – so we may as well give up all hope. Then there are the open threats directed against the Republic by Turkey’s prime minister, which do not cultivate a positive climate, conducive to a deal.
Greek Cypriots would rightly ask, ‘could we trust a country that is threatening to attack us if we drill for hydrocarbons in our exclusive economic zone?’ The talks may be Cypriot-owned, but an agreement will also be owned by Turkey, as a guarantor power and paymaster of the north. And speaking of paymaster, does the UN seriously believe that there could be a deal without Turkey carrying on picking up the tab for a Turkish Cypriot constituent state? What is the likelihood of the Greek Cypriots, who cannot afford to pay the salaries of their own state employees, agreeing to add another 40,000 overpaid workers to the public payroll?
This may seem a trivial concern, but it is not. The cost of reunification could be prohibitive, especially during hard times such as these, but it has not been addressed during the talks. What is the likelihood of Greek Cypriots agreeing to share power with the Turkish Cypriots and pick up the tab for the privilege? This would have been unlikely at time of an economic boom, but during a recession, it would be impossible.
And what is the possibility of a president, whose approval rating has hit rock bottom, being able to sell a deal to the Greek Cypriots? We are not being negative, we are being pragmatic, which is why we find it very difficult to believe Downer when he says that an agreement is possible.
