ANOTHER supposed obstacle to progress in the ongoing Cyprus talks will be removed today when Turks vote in parliamentary elections. These, together with last month’s Cyprus parliamentary elections, had allowed the two sides to engage in low-maintenance talks – carrying on meeting but discussing issues of secondary importance. Both sides would be content to continue this type of sterile talks for another couple of years, until after our presidential elections in February 2013.
We suspect that this would have been the ideal scenario for President Christofias, who does not seem to have the stomach for dealing with the public criticism and discontent any type of deal would inevitably provoke. He is in no hurry, hence his insistence on a solution made in Cyprus and dogmatic opposition to all time-frames, be they asphyxiating or artificial. So far, he has been successful in pushing back the ‘big decision time’, persuading UN chief Ban Ki-moon on several occasions not to force things, despite the Turkish side’s calls for a speeding up of the procedure.
The Turks have been showing a greater sense of urgency and calling for deadlines, not because they are particularly keen on a deal, but because they believe that a make-or-break process would lead to the collapse of the talks and end of the UN initiative. This reasoning is based on the calculation that if Christofias were pressured into making a decision he would reject a deal and be blamed for the failure. It may explain why he is dogmatically opposed to Turkey’s demand for a five-party conference, in which Turkey and Greece would participate.
But for how much longer would the president be able to keep the Cyprus-owned talks, which are going nowhere, alive? He must be aware that time is running out and that after three years of Cyprus-owned talks a deviation from the agreed procedure and the setting of a time-frame would be on the agenda of the July 7 meeting in Geneva with Dervis Eroglu and Ban. UN Special Advisor Alexander Downer, after seeing Christofias on Wednesday, gave a clear indication of what the UN had in mind for the Geneva meeting.
“What we want is for the leaders to have a very clear way forward,” he said adding, “we look forward to them implementing a clear plan to bring the negotiations to a conclusion”. He did not say by when the UN hoped the negotiations were brought to a conclusion, but an educated guess would put this at the end of the year. The UN would also have the full support of the European Commission, which has made no secret of the fact that it would like to see a settlement before Cyprus assumed the EU presidency in the second half of 2012.
In short, there would be a time-frame, even though everybody avoids mentioning it. During both previous meetings with Christofias and Eroglu, Ban mentioned that interminable talks were not acceptable to the UN or the people of Cyprus. But his call for a sense of urgency at the previous meeting were completely ignored, as were requests for proposals for overcoming sticking points, and the procedure continued to flounder. It is very doubtful that he would carry on indulging the two leaders at the July meeting and allow the continuation of the agreed procedure that leads nowhere.
Setting an end of year deadline would be the best thing the UN could do. A five-party conference at the end of the procedure to try to resolve all remaining differences would also be welcome. Nobody would suggest there would be a settlement after a conference, but if there is not the UN can roll up the maps, pack up their proposals and return to New York because this would be the end of the road. The Greek Cypriot politicians could carry on advertising their uncompromising positions about human rights etc, while the Turks would be left with everything they seized in 1974.
Meanwhile, at the end of this year there is another deadline which Greek Cypriots should be made aware of. The Immovable Property Commission in the north will not accept applications for compensation after December 21. Those who do not apply before then will lose their properties in the occupied area for good, without getting a cent for them, a point forcefully made on a TV show by several respected lawyers.
Time is running out on all fronts, but our politicians are still living in their make-believe world, in which the passing of time is never an issue.
