POLITICAL parties are playing their cards close to their chest in what can only be described as a poker game for the upcoming election of a new House Speaker – seen as a key factor in forging alliances on the road to the 2013 presidential ballot.
In a 56-seat parliament, in order to be elected House Speaker a candidate needs at least 29 votes (50 per cent plus one).
But given the results of Sunday’s elections, the support of at least three parties is a must for any hopeful to be assured of success.
In the new House, DISY has 20 seats, AKEL 19, DIKO nine, socialists EDEK five, the European Democrats two, and the Greens one.
The most prominent contender is current House Speaker Marios Garoyian. But the combined support of coalition partners DIKO and AKEL would not be enough to get him elected. Garoyian would still need one more ballot from one of the other parties to clinch the crucial 29th vote.
The only two-party combination that works, other than a ‘grand coalition’ of the two biggest parties, is a DISY-DIKO collaboration, possibly nominating Garoyian for the post. That means rivals AKEL and DISY would be backing a common candidate; while not ruling out this scenario entirely, most observers say it’s unlikely.
The other name being touted is that of EDEK leader Yiannakis Omirou. But he’d require the combined votes of his own party, DISY, the European Democrats and the Greens – and even then come up short with just 28 votes.
By mathematical necessity, therefore, the parties need to forge alliances that could have broad implications for the next presidential elections.
“Since 1991, the forming of alliances for the presidential elections begins with the election of the House Speaker,” says political analyst Christophoros Christophorou, assistant professor of Communications at the University of Nicosia.
That’s because the office of House Speaker offers its holder and his party a major bargaining chip. In the horse-trading preceding a presidential ballot, the holder will offer the position to backers post-election once he or she is elected President and the position of House Speaker remains vacant.
One oft-cited example is the 2008 presidential elections, when Demetris Christofias, then House Speaker, offered Garoyian the post in exchange for DIKO’s support for his candidacy. Apparently DISY had promised DIKO the same, but their drawback was that they could not deliver immediately – they had to wait until the change of guard in parliament – whereas Christofias could. The majority of DIKO voters cast their ballot for Christofias in 2008.
The dilemma for DISY, explains Christophorou, is whether to nominate its own candidate for House Speaker and risk losing out on a future partnership with DIKO whose support is essential for the 2013 presidential race. It’s understood that DISY leader Nicos Anastassiades is considering running for President. If Anastassiades himself now runs for House Speaker and wins, he’d have the bargaining chip to offer DIKO in the future – but that’s a long shot.
“The numbers don’t add up for DISY. The name of the game for 2013 is to flirt with DIKO. If you don’t back Garoyian now for House Speaker, you’re already on the wrong track,” said Louis Igoumenides, formerly with the United Democrats.
There’s another reason why Anastassiades should throw in his lot with the DIKO leader: “By supporting Garoyian, and without any strings attached, you’d also encourage the current inside DIKO that is critical of Christofias – Nicholas Papadopoulos for instance – to let rip against AKEL, thus dealing a blow to the current coalition.”
In reality, said Christophorou, DISY and DIKO have more in common than AKEL and DIKO do. “They see eye to eye on the economy. Only on the Cyprus issue do they have major disagreements, but I’m sure these can be made to go away for the sake of the Presidency.
“Don’t be shocked if DISY turns rejectionist in 2013,” he added.
