THE CYPRUS problem promises to end the first month of the new year with a bang, or at least a pop, if not a crackle.
Mirroring the envious lifestyle of Her Majesty’s top agent Mr Bond, the age-old conflict this week sees its main actors travel to yet another cosmopolitan city, filled with cosmopolitan players of the international scene aided by a stream of black cars, respectable accommodation and smart dress.
Yes, it’s that time again when UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon gets the two leaders together and says, “What have you done for me lately?”
The last time was three months ago in New York. It was relatively chilly but that didn’t stop the UN chief from heating things up a bit with some robust language. He panned the talks for being “without clear progress or a clear end in sight”, and proceeded to cattle prod the process into action.
How? First, by forcing the two leaders to shake hands in front of the cameras. Then by extracting pledges from them to intensify their meetings, agree on more issues, identify the main points of disagreement, come up with a practical plan for overcoming them and meeting Ban again in Geneva at the end of January.
A few days later, the UN chief issued a progress report on the UN’s Good Offices mission in Cyprus. Displaying an uncanny symbiosis with his Australian special adviser, Ban repeated the kind of straight talk easily overheard at any social event Alexander Downer chooses to attend. The UNSG pointed out that “talks for the sake of talks are ultimately not productive” while in this particular case, the talks have been rather “sluggish”.
Noting that Cyprus and Turkey are entering election periods in the second quarter of 2011, Ban effectively warned the two leaders to reach “substantive agreement across all chapters” before April if they wanted to avoid the talks “foundering fatally”.
There was also mention of the rather gloomy opinion each community had of the other. Hence the need for both leaders to play nice in the coming months in an effort to inject some trust in the process.
Ban even had words for the media, accusing them of lying, or telling untruths, about the UN and spreading negativity. Perhaps stating the obvious here, he thought to explain: “Efforts by opponents of a solution to undermine the UN’s credibility directly undermines the process itself.”
In any event, as one source close to the talks put it, Ban’s November meet was an “eye-opener and a game changer”. In the sense that he put down a clear modus operandi for the following months, using his personal intervention and interest as a means to throw salt on the slug and bring out the roadrunner.
Did it work? Well, hard to say really. It certainly introduced a greater sense of urgency between the two sides. But this heightened activity could also be interpreted as a deft rendition of ‘Dodge the Bullet’, the performance of choice by those wishing to avoid blame for the impending collapse of negotiations.
To be fair, the poor health of Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu which caused a fair amount of delay in the intervening period was not foreseeable, unless you were of the mould that foresaw it.
Neither was the bombshell dropped by German Chancellor Angela Merkel during her visit two weeks ago. The way President Demetris Christofias looked at her as she chastised Turkey for not doing enough in the talks was almost enough to wipe the smile off Elsi’s face. It certainly made Turkish PM Tayip Erdogan’s whiskers twitch.
It’s fair to say the climate soured after Merkel’s visit on January 11, but the truth is the two leaders’ respective aides have met quite frequently since November. And it appears Christofias and Eroglu are close to reaching agreement on the EU and economy chapters. Not on governance and power sharing, however, with Christofias saying he was “troubled” by Eroglu’s proposals submitted a week ago. Reports suggest Eroglu is backtracking from his predecessor’s agreement on a reunited island having single sovereignty.
One EU diplomat countered press reports slamming Eroglu for going beyond the basis of the talks, saying: “I have read their proposals and they are trying to bridge the differences. I’m not saying the Greek Cypriots have to agree but take the Swiss constitution for instance, it says the federal states are sovereign, they’re still talking about a federation though, not a confederation.”
It appears the two leaders are no closer on property either with Christofias pushing for the matter to be examined in tandem with territory while Eroglu wants security to be linked to both property and territory in an international conference.
Another European diplomat said he expected the UN to carve out a “road map” until mid-March when another meeting with Ban is likely to take place.
“The UN needs something more than what happened in New York, something on property and how the connection with the other chapters will be made. It also needs something on what the meeting will be in mid-March. Will it be a broader meeting with the guarantor powers?”
The diplomat said the governance chapter was more of a “linguistic problem” whereas property was a meaty issue that needed to be tackled in the next two months.
“If the parties are too negative to go forward on property, Ban may have to say, ‘ok let’s broaden the meeting in March’,” he said. And if the guarantor powers come in, this could very well mean linking all the “touchy” chapters of property, territory and security together.
The European argued that Eroglu was “not stupid” and would not make concessions on territory alone given that he was elected “as the man who would keep the north intact”. He wants Turkey by his side when territory and security are negotiated so they can be presented as a package.
A source close to the talks, however, played down the notion of a “broader meeting” taking place before the election period. The aim of Geneva is to maintain the pace or move quicker and provide “a firm staging ground or springboard for possible agreement in the coming months”.
The hope is, short of a consolidated plan, for the two sides to have a clearer picture of convergences reached by March, with the final touches added and an international conference held post-elections. And to keep the pressure on, Ban has promised to give another progress report, oral or written, in February.
Another diplomat said it was difficult to get a sense of what to expect from Geneva: “I don’t think the UN will crack the whip at this point. We didn’t know in November either whether it was going to be a kick or a hug.”
And the last diplomat approached was the least enthusiastic. “I don’t expect anything to happen. They’ll probably try to patch it up until March. The UN will find a formula to keep the talks alive.
“The Turkish Cypriots are in a hard place. They’ve got to choose between the EU with the Greek Cypriots and subsequent fear of domination, or a loose confederation where they will still be in the hands of the Turks. They have more to gain from a federation if they can trust the Greek Cypriots this time round, but it’s difficult for them,” he said.
