TURKISH Cypriots go to the polls today to vote in the sixth ‘presidential’ elections since the invasion of 1974.
Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash must fight off stiff challenges if he is to go to the third round of settlement talks due in New York next month.
For a place as tiny as the so-called ‘Turkish Republic of North Cyprus’, there are an incredible eight candidates. But only four could be called significant contenders, and only one, ‘Prime Minister’ Dervis Eroglu, poses a serious threat to Denktash’s decades-long uninterrupted reign in power.
Mehmet Ali Talat, leader of the Republican Turkish Party, and Mustafa Akinci, leader of the Communal Liberation Party are the other two chief candidates, but their chances of making the probable second round (necessary if no man clocks up more than 50 per cent of the vote today) are slim.
"Talat’s a good man. He’s a social democrat and he, more than anyone else in the TRNC, has caught the mood of change since Helsinki, but he doesn’t command a broad basis of support", said one diplomat.
Akinci commands even less support, though his politics of EU, peace and prosperity are not particularly different from Talat’s.
So the real fight will be between Denktash and Eroglu.
And it’s a sixth term for Denktash that most predict.
But why does an electorate, in free elections, with a consistently high turnout rate (about 85 per cent) favour the same man time and time again?
Denktash may have doctored the ‘constitution’ to allow him to stand for more than two terms, but there’s no doubt of the immense popularity he enjoys among Turkish Cypriots.
He’s Ankara’s man, and that counts given that Turkey is the only country in the world to recognise the ‘TRNC’ claim to statehood. And the mainland Turkish media adore him, this year voting him Man of the Year – an award critics dismissed as a weak stunt, coming just weeks before the election in a full blown presentation by President Suleyman Demirel.
But for most Turkish Cypriots the truth is that Denktash deserved it.
Engin Ari, one of Eroglu’s party members and campaigners told The Sunday Mail that, "Denktash has sacrificed a lot for us and people are grateful. He was and is a great figure, it’s just that now is the time for change."
The media on both sides of the Green Line have touted the participation of Turkish settlers as the main reason for the 13,191 increase in the now 126,591 strong electorate since 1995 – and say it’s their vote that props up Denktash’s ‘democratic dictatorship’.
But Ari also dismisses this. "The settlers have been here a long time. I don’t think they vote as a separate group; they are much more like Turkish Cypriots than Turks now."
The real issue at stake is the Cyprus problem, but as both Eroglu and Denktash adopt an equally hard-line policy, the choice is one of capability. And with the New York talks coming so soon after the election, some fear that a fresh player who lacks experience could upset the process.
"Denktash is a legend. At every step of the way he has been there: no one can match his track record. The Turkish Cypriots love him for that. He speaks excellent English and it’s his life work to reach a settlement," the western diplomat said.
And Denktash has never failed to exploit that authority. He has proclaimed his re-election as his ‘right’, "because I have defended and never disappointed my people".
Despite the outwardly conservative nature of the Turkish Cypriot electorate, there is a substantial group clamouring for change. They blame Denktash for sacrificing internal politics to faction fighting. The Turkish Cypriot economy still lags behind the boom in the free areas. Denktash opposes any EU talks before a settlement, whereas younger politicians and businessmen are more eager to cash in on Brussels money.
They also criticise him for monopolising the Cyprus negotiations, leaving possible successors in the dark.
"There is a very real concern that after Denktash, the TRNC could stumble. The man is not the country. He has to realise and let others come in. At 76, he’s very well, but he’s not young any more. He needs to work with others," said Ari.
Indeed, Eroglu’s campaign has been all about working together. He’s made an attempt to add internal politics to his campaign agenda, along with the Internet and the EU. He talks of appointing councils of legal experts to help with the Cyprus negotiations, and economic experts to assist with EU preparations.
He has made a showy attempt to bring the still traditional Turkish Cypriot campaign methods into the 21st century. His slogan is "modern and courageous statesman" and his campaign has been a low-budget, weak imitation of those US campaigns. He boasts a catchy www.eroglu2000.com website. His rallies, less well attended than Denktash’s simpler, more rustic affairs, have been a blitz of balloons and fireworks. Furthermore he has worked hard. He claims to have visited 236 villages and addressed 16 rallies.
But just as Turkish-Cypriots don’t like change, there are many who are suspicious of the glitz, particularly as Eroglu’s qualifications are somewhat dubious.
There has been mud slinging on both sides, but Eroglu has fumbled under Denktash’s rhetoric. His English is almost non-existent: not, in theory, a bar to his success at the negotiating table, but in practice it would be awkward, and at the social gatherings so important to diplomacy – embarrassing.
He has backtracked on his commitment to personally front negotiations, by talking about teams and advisors – which seems flimsy in comparison with Denktash’s staggering experience.
His reputation also took a dive after his bungled attempt to contain a recent banking crisis.
Change for the sake of change is no reason to elect Eroglu. But what he can do is take Denktash to a second round.
"You know, Denktash is worried. He’ll win, but he’s worried. Eroglu’s put up a strong challenge," said Reuters journalist Gokhan Tezgor.
The fact is that Denktash is not a bar to a Cyprus settlement.
Some have said that things will progress if Denktash goes, but that’s perhaps superficial. The reason he’s so popular is because he champions precisely what his compatriots so firmly believe in.
Campaigning ceased at 6pm last night; the ballot boxes are open from 10am to 6pm today. First results are expected at 10pm, but clear indications of the outcome are expected earlier.
One source predicted that the first round results would put Talat in the mid to high teens, Eroglu in the low 20s and Denktash at about 48 per cent.
A second round would depend on whom the left supports, given that there is little difference between Denktash and Eroglu on policy. In 1995 Eroglu lost the second round 37.52 per cent to Denktash’s 62.48 per cent.
It’s next week that the bitterness will probably set in. The announcement on Thursday that the ‘Mayor’ of Kyrenia, a member of Eroglu’s NUP party, would back Denktash in a second round could well be the first of many.
