THE EAGERLY-AWAITED visit of the UN Secretary-General’s representative Jane Holl Lute might not have been very illuminating about the next steps that would be taken in the Cyprus procedure as she made no public comment, but a clearer picture has been formed about what lies ahead. Views expressed in the days that followed her Monday meetings with the two leaders indicate that we are entering the final act of the Cyprus problem, as we know it, the end of the 50-year journey of negotiations that never arrived at any destination.
The Greek Cypriot negotiator, Andreas Mavroyiannis, who sat in on President Anastasiades’ meeting with Lute, did not mince his words speaking on Super Sport FM, on Thursday morning. “This period signals, possibly, the end of an era,” explaining that he meant the “approach adopted after the invasion.” After the failure to reach an agreement last year, there were questions whether “there is anything else left to do,” Mavroyiannis said, suggesting that the UN would abandon efforts aimed at achieving a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation.
“We must all realise how serious things are,” he warned explaining that if there was an extended deadlock or the UN called it a day, “it will be the first time since 1974 that we will be faced with what to do next,” Mavroyiannis said. Although he did not spell it out, the “end of an era” also referred to end of the Unficyp’s presence. On Friday, Alithia carried a front page report saying that the UN Security Council had renewed Unficyp’s six-month mandate for the last time on Thursday. There had been US objections to this renewal, but in the end it was agreed to maintain Unficyp’s status for another six months to give the UN Secretary-General time for an attempt at another initiative.
Turkey supports a new initiative, according to foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, who revealed, during his visit to the north that the guarantor powers were in consultation about what should be done. “We started, as guarantor powers, to discuss in an informal way, what we should do from now on, what steps to take, what we should do before new negotiations begin. We are also talking to the UN.” His Greek counterpart Nikos Kotzias, also referred to the consultations with Ankara, indicating that Greece and Turkey were already preparing for a new initiative.
Whether it will materialise remains to be seen. Mavroyiannis told Super Sport FM there was “a small window of opportunity that was opened last year by the UN Secretary-General and now to ensure potential of success we must convince the UNSG and ourselves that this is achievable.” Is it though? Has President Anastasiades convinced Lute that he was committed to seizing this last opportunity or is he content to see the arrival of the “end of the era”?
It is very difficult to know what the president is thinking, because in his public speeches he still engages in the familiar blame-game and the setting of conditions for talks, before signalling his supposed readiness to return to the negotiations. Has he given up on the idea of partition, which, he had toyed with and according to past reports in Phileleftheros, had unofficially conveyed to the Turkish side? Does he agree with Mavroyiannis that “failure is not an option” and of the need to do “whatever we can to maximise the chances of success”?
Anastasiades did not exhaust all efforts to maximise the chances of success in Crans-Montana and seemed to have been satisfied with the failure option. What would be different this time, assuming there is another conference? First, the president will not have his re-election to think about and the need to pander to anti-settlement voters. Second, he would not be so smug about keeping things as they are, in the knowledge that Unficyp would withdraw; security would become a major issue for Greek Cypriots. Third, energy plans will be up in the air, Cavusoglu having said that Turkey would respond to drilling in the Cypriot EEZ by following suit. Fourth, Greece’s government appears more committed to a deal, the fallout with Moscow perhaps having played a part.
The truth is that Anastasiades has never been a conviction politician. He was never committed to a settlement like Clerides was or to partition like Papadopoulos was. He is a pragmatic opportunist who could swing either way, depending on circumstances and personal political interests. We will have a better idea of his agenda, after Monday’s meeting with the party leaders whom he will brief about his meeting with Lute, but it is entirely possible that he will keep us guessing for a while longer.
