President Nicos Anastasiades is poised for a landslide re-election against either of the two candidates likely to join him in the run-off in January’s presidential election, according to a poll presented by state broadcaster CyBC on Friday night.
According to a sample of 1,100 randomly selected respondents questioned through phone interviews by Cymar from November 14 to 18, Anastasiades was seen leading the first round with 27 per cent. Akel-backed Stavros Malas and Diko leader Nicolas Papadopoulos – who is backed by his party, socialists Edek, Solidarity and the Green party – tied in second place at 13.5 per cent.
Far-right Elam leader Christos Christou was a surprise fourth, with 4 per cent, ahead of Citizens’ Alliance leader Yiorgos Lillikas, who will be disappointed with the 2 per cent he garnered in the poll.
Bank bondholders’ association head Fivos Mavrovouniotis followed with 1 per cent.
Ten per cent of respondents said they plan to sit out the vote, while 21.5 per cent identified themselves as undecided and 7 per cent declined to answer.
The aggregated results of those who stated a preferred candidate widened Anastasiades’ first-round lead, showing him at 44 per cent, with Malas and Papadopoulos trailing at 22 per cent, Christou at 7 per cent and Lillikas at 3 per cent.
The 10-per-cent pool of undecideds was dissected by the pollsters, revealing that it comprised 29 per cent female and 13 per cent male voters.
Per party, undecideds formed a whopping 47 per cent of those who voted for the Greens in last year’s legislative elections, 31 per cent of those who voted for the Citizens’ Alliance, and 30, 20 and 10 per cent of those who voted for Solidarity, Diko and Edek, respectively.
Eleven per cent of Akel’s voters in last year’s election said they were undecided this time, while Disy and Elam’s undecideds were in the single digits at 9 per cent each.
The group of undecideds belonged mostly to the younger age-groups, with a steadily declining trend among older voters. The age bracket featuring the largest share of undecideds was 18 to 24, with 28 per cent, and the smallest the 65+ age group with 12 per cent.
Irrespective of their own voting preference, more than three in five respondents – 61 per cent – said they thought Anastasiades would win the election, 11 per cent named Papadopoulos as most likely to win, and 6 per cent Malas, with 22 per cent not expressing an opinion.
In the second round, things become even easier for Anastasiades, according to this poll.
Opposite Malas, the president tallies 42 per cent of the vote, with Akel’s candidate getting 22 per cent, as 13 per cent have still to make up their minds between the two. One in five would vote for neither – 7 per cent would abstain, 13 per cent said they would vote for neither, 4 per cent would cast a blank vote, and 2 per cent would cast an invalid vote – and 5 per cent declined to answer.
If Papadopoulos were to make it to the run-off, Anastasiades would still maintain a comfortable lead, with 40 per cent, although the challenger would fare better than Malas, with 25 per cent. Fourteen per cent said they have yet to choose among the two, while 16 per cent said neither and 6 per cent said they would abstain.
In the least likely scenario, Papadopoulos would beat Malas in the run-off with 33 to 27 per cent, although this is the only scenario in which the undecideds – 13 per cent – could swing the result. Over one in five – 22 per cent – said they would vote for neither, while 5 per cent declined to identify a preference.
