By Stefanos Evripidou
AS THE stand-off between Turkey and Cyprus over hydrocarbon exploration continues, efforts are underway to find a ‘face-saving formula’ that would allow the resumption of peace talks between the two.
According to various sources, if the Barbaros, Turkey’s seismic research vessel currently doing the rounds of Cypriot offshore blocks, leaves Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) soon, the omens are good for a swift return to the negotiating table, even with Turkey’s navigational telex (NAVTEX) still in place.
If Turkey’s prodding of the EEZ continues until the NAVTEX expires on December 30, while Cyprus’ poking of Ankara intensifies, using all legal, diplomatic and political means at its disposal, then we’re looking at ushering in the new year on a bit of a downer. Meanwhile, the Turkish Cypriot election campaign will get into full swing.
Whatever happens, everyone agrees that sooner or later the talks will start again.
But with confidence, momentum and trust in the peace process hitting the ground faster than an oil drill, the question raised by recent tensions is can Cyprus risk developing its natural resources in the long-run without cutting a deal with Turkey?
The vast majority of the international community has clearly backs Cyprus’ legitimate right to develop its resources, with EU leaders reinforcing this view on Friday when they urged Turkey to show restraint and respect Cyprus’ sovereignty over its territorial sea and EEZ.
The US has also made it clear it supports Cyprus’ sovereign rights to exploit its resources. While refraining from public criticism, Washington has pressed home the point to Ankara in recent weeks that Barbaros’ latest walkabout is unauthorised, recording a clear disagreement on the issue – among others – between the two capitals.
But as one Cypriot diplomat put it: “We’ve got volumes of resolutions in our favour since 1963. There are lots of nice statements but the Barbaros is still there.”
At the same time, foreign powers acknowledge that the island’s resources belong to all Cypriots, a nod to the rights of Turkish Cypriots. They stress the importance of the peace talks resuming, and in a small dig at Ankara, encourage the cultivation of a more productive and positive environment for negotiations to continue.
Another source told the Sunday Mail that the international community’s backing of Cyprus’ sovereign rights to exploit and monetise its hydrocarbons is “clear”, however, executing those rights is Cyprus’ own responsibility.
The general view is that Turkey is sending a strong political message that it opposes the development of hydrocarbons in Cyprus’ EEZ. Every time Cyprus takes a step forward in its energy plans, Ankara engages in a tit-for-tat move to frustrate and even frighten the islanders.
Whether Turkey’s petroleum corporation TPAO has the substantial funds and will to go all the way and bring a costly rig to drill in Cyprus’ EEZ remains to be seen.
Some analysts argue this is Ankara’s way of reminding Nicosia that with or without a Cyprus solution, Turkey is a big coastal country and wants a say in energy developments in the eastern Mediterranean. Whether this means actual dibs on the deposits or relates more to ensuring gas is funnelled to Turkey via pipeline is unclear.
A foreign ministry source said Turkey is sending the message, “I am present”, which many expected after gas quantities were confirmed in block 9, not before.
“Turkey wants to test our reactions and those of third parties. It wants to measure those reactions and build on them for its next steps,” said the source, who argued that the president had little choice but to protest Turkey’s brazen moves as loud as possible.
The government would have loved to send a few navy vessels to wave its flag in the sea but it doesn’t have any and is not so naive to think anyone else is going to wave the flag for Cyprus.
Despite the heavy government spin on the timing of Israeli air and Russian naval exercises near Cyprus, the reality is these things take months to prepare and were not organised as a counter to Turkish violations.
This leaves the Anastasiades government with one major weapon, the art of protest. Of course there are nuances to protesting, and threats of pulling the brakes on Turkey’s accession process or mixing the pot on Russian sanctions do add to the armoury.
But one analyst argued that Cyprus should focus less on Turkey’s behaviour and more on developing a more mature strategy for its own approach to gas development if it wants to achieve success in the long term.
A foreign ministry source argued in the long-run, Cyprus can extract its gas, even if no deal with Turkey is reached, “without this meaning we are under the illusion Turkey won’t react”.
“Just because we expect them to react to us developing our resources doesn’t mean we should raise our hands and say, here, take them,” he added.
The ministry is working on various scenarios as to how the hydrocarbons could be developed. The first aim is to get the quantities of gas confirmed. Then, exploitation can start. The underlying theme behind all the scenarios is developing strategic energy cooperation with neighbouring countries.
If the final decision is ever taken to build an LNG terminal, this will take years. In the meantime, Cyprus could work on exporting gas to Jordan and Egypt, in possible collaboration with Israel.
“It’s one thing for Turkey to interfere with small Cyprus’ plans and another to impact upon other countries in the region, particularly Egypt and Israel,” said the ministry source.
However, he stressed, “At no stage have we ruled out cooperation with Turkey, provided a Cyprus problem solution precedes it. Without a solution, there is no issue of cooperating with Turkey. We are not entertaining this scenario.”
The ministry is working on a number of scenarios on how to cooperate with Turkey post-solution – looking at LNG export, pipeline from Cyprus or Israel – depending on the timeline, gas finds and how advanced energy plans are.
“The best case scenario is a Cyprus solution, and cooperation with Turkey in hydrocarbons. The form of cooperation depends on the time of a solution, what arrangements or agreements have been reached by then.”
An important question is what will the regional environment look like in the next five to ten years? Things are changing rapidly and nobody can predict with certainty what will happen in the region.
The source argued that while being an EU member state has afforded Cyprus greater security politically and diplomatically, a reunified Cyprus in the EU would be even more secure.
While the discovery of hydrocarbons has strengthened Cyprus’ hand, he argues it really could be a blessing or a curse. “If we handle the hydrocarbons the way we’ve handled a lot of things since 1960, we will be cursed. We need to get very serious and play it right.”
On paper, Turkey is acting on behalf of the Turkish Cypriots, something which their leader Dervis Eroglu is keen to stress. But the Turkish Cypriots’ rather unhealthy dependence on Turkey has led to a continental shelf agreement between the two which greatly favours Turkey’s energy ambitions, regardless of the fact Cyprus deems it null and void under international law.
Turkey’s refusal to recognise the rights of islands to an EEZ explains why it has eaten up a fair portion of the island’s northern EEZ boundary, at the cost of the ‘daughterland’ and potentially, a future federal state.
How this square will be circled is one for the future, if and when a solution appears.
In the meantime, a Turkish Cypriot source told the paper there was no way Cyprus would be allowed to extract gas without reaching an agreement with Ankara first.
“It cannot and won’t happen. The resources belong to both communities,” he said.
Apart from wanting a cut, the driving concern of the Turkish Cypriots is that the Greek Cypriots will become rich and powerful through energy development, shifting the balance of power and strengthening their negotiating position greatly.
The source argued that President Anastasiades has employed delaying tactics in the negotiations, first creating numerous preconditions, then revising a significant number of past convergences, now suspending the talks as part of a grander scheme to improve his side’s bargaining position.
He argued that even if an escrow account was opened in the name of Turkish Cypriots and filled with their share of gas revenues, this would give the Greek Cypriots greater leverage over them.
“It would allow them to point to this wealth and say, look, if you want this, you have to agree to this, this and this,” he said.
The source argued either gas developments are put on hold while the peace process is ongoing or the Greek Cypriots agree to jointly manage the hydrocarbons around the island.
The foreign ministry source ruled out any proposal to put the gas on the negotiating table: “This has been rejected. It is absolutely clear. We never agreed to this.”
In the meantime, the clock keeps ticking, Barbaros keeps roaming, everyone keeps protesting, and the division remains.
