CYPRUS must find ways of doing business with Turkey if it is to capitalise fully on the potentially huge gas bonanza in its offshore waters, energy experts say.
The most cost-effective way to export any finds to European markets and beyond is by pipeline to Turkey where it could mesh with major pipeline projects.
The other main option is to build a liquefaction plant in Cyprus to export the gas by tanker. That could cost $8 billion and take years to complete. A pipeline to Greece, meanwhile, would be prohibitively expensive.
Dealing commercially with Turkey in the absence of a Cyprus solution would require a seismic shift in political thinking. But given the financial, political and security rewards, there are some signs that is already happening.
“There are those on our side who say: now that we’ve found gas we shall kick the Turks’ backside. That is just nonsense. It doesn’t work that way. Nor will the Turks back off,” a member of the House Committee on Foreign and European Affairs told the Sunday Mail. “So perhaps we should explore the situation where everybody wins,” the politician, a member of the opposition, added.
While agreeing that a Cyprus-Turkey pipeline would be the best solution, former Foreign Minister Nicos Rolandis said he doubted the Greek Cypriots would ever agree to do business with Turkey because of the ongoing occupation.
“I doubt anyone on the Greek Cypriot side would so much as dare suggest this. All hell would break loose on the domestic scene,” he said.
Even so, diplomats hope the clear benefits for all parties will serve as an incentive to resolve the Cyprus problem.
Although there was little optimism ahead of today’s high-level meeting in New York between the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon, President Demetris Christofias and the Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu, the possibility of dazzling hydrocarbon riches has added the first new dimension to peace talks in three decades.
It could take several years before Cyprus is in a position to export gas, by which time there could be a re-unification deal, analysts say.
President Demetris Christofias has already attempted to separate the Cyprus problem from the gas issue. He told the UN General Assembly last month that Cyprus was willing to share any hydrocarbon profits with the Turkish Cypriots even without a settlement.
