THE CYPRUS peace talks have always followed the same script. They drag on uneventfully for a few years and eventually reach a climax, the supposed make-or-break point, after which they break and are followed by a few years of no activity until they resume again. This script has been repeated over the last 37 years, much longer if we add the lower-key, inter-communal talks held before the Turkish invasion.
It is difficult to say whether the two-day meeting under UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon that commences today in New York will prove the make-or-break juncture or will simply pave the way for the inevitable climax of the peace drive at a later date. The very modest progress made during the intensified round of talks, ordered by Ban, indicates that the climax, which always precedes the admission of failure, will have to be postponed.
At the last meeting Ban had with Demetris Christofias and Dervis Eroglu, on July 7, he had asked that the two worked at finding convergences on all issues by the next time the three met in October. This has not happened, his special envoy admitting there were still “important divergences that needed to be resolved”. We very much doubt these will be resolved over the next two days, which would leave the Secretary-General with a dilemma.
Will he call a deadlock and allow the resources and effort invested in these three-and-a-half years of talks to go down the drain? The alternative, and most likely scenario, would be for Ban to give the two leaders more time to resolve the remaining core differences. Whatever he decides will be considered a failure, even though the latter option, while an embarrassment (the two leaders had completely ignored his exhortations in July) keeps alive a small glimmer of hope.
The first option would have the support of the Turkish side, which had been demanding for the setting of a deadline for the completion of the talks even before the July meeting. Christofias, on the other hand, would consider it a personal success if he can buy more time, given his aversion to time-frames. Buying time appears to have been Christofias’ main objective but for how much longer will Ban allow talks to drag on, given the pressure being applied by Turkey for the UN to declare the failure of the talks?
There is another factor at play. The EU top brass has repeatedly said that it wanted a settlement before Cyprus took over the EU presidency next July 1. It wants to avoid the political complications that would result from Turkey’s refusal to have any dealings with the Republic during its presidency. A settlement would eliminate these problems, which is why Ban would be inclined to keep the talks going for a few more months in the hope there would be a deal.
Unfortunately, the Cypriot owners of the procedure do not appear to be very committed to seeing it end any time soon. Eroglu has never been a supporter of a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation and with Turkey – having lost interest in a deal now that the incentive of EU membership has all but vanished – leaving him to his own devices he would be more than happy to pursue a deadlock.
Christofias may have the same objective, for different reasons. He is politically isolated and would be unwilling to take any big step that would give opposition parties another reason to attack him. The truth is that his public acceptance is so low he is in no position to sell any deal to the Greek Cypriots; he will probably use this weakness in the meetings with Ban as an argument for more time.
The only snag is that the Turkish side could exploit his weakness, trying to force things to happen – it could make reasonable proposals – safe in the knowledge that Christofias would be unwilling to go along and be seen as the side responsible for the lack of progress. We suspect that not being blamed for a breakdown of the talks is the primary concern of both sides today and tomorrow, but this attitude is unlikely to produce positive results. Then again, positive results have never featured in the time-honoured script of the Cyprus talks which both sides follow with religious devotion.
