THE GOVERNMENT and its AKEL cheerleaders may have been a bit too quick to celebrate a victory in the oil-drilling saga. True, the Noble Energy rig arrived at the Aphrodite Block as scheduled and commenced drilling this week, without any interference from the Turkish navy, anchored a safe distance away. But it may be wishful thinking to conclude that Prime Minister Erdogan was bluffing when he was issuing his threats and would now let the matter go.
This is obviously what the government, which was quick to claim credit for the trouble-free start of the drilling, is hoping. According to its mouthpiece, “it showed the ability to handle the issue of natural gas in a way that minimised the Turkish reactions.” President Christofias, argued one of his spokesmen, through his initiatives in the international arena, “made the international community the shield of Cyprus,” implying that Turkey had been forced to respect Cyprus’ sovereign rights. But for how long it would continue to do so, nobody could safely predict.
Cyprus may have won the first couple of rounds, but this is set to be a long bout and Erdogan is unlikely to throw in the towel any time soon. This realisation has been reflected in the official positions of the government which has toned down its rhetoric. Last weekend foreign minister Erato Kozakou Marcoulli took a tough line, declaring that “as long as division of the island continues, the Turkish Cypriots will be deprived of Cyprus’ wealth.” Only when the island united would they “benefit from this development,” she warned. This line was repeated by Christofias and his spokesmen.
But on Wednesday the government watered down is defiance and made a 180-degree turn, claiming it would share the revenue from the natural gas (assuming the drilling was successful) with the Turkish Cypriots, even if there was not settlement. Christofias said: “I would say as President of the Republic that I guarantee that even before a settlement – in the event that Turkey does not show goodwill – if we have this revenue (from the hydrocarbons) we shall see in what way we could use it for the benefit of both communities.” He concluded that, “under the circumstances, Turkey’s provocation was doubly unacceptable.”
The about-turn, repeated during his speech at the UN General Assembly on Thursday, may have been dictated by the signing in New York of a ‘continental shelf agreement’ between Turkey and the pseudo-state, which would supposedly lead to Turkish explorations for hydrocarbons in the seas west of Paphos. The Turkish exploration ship accompanied navy ships, is already in waters off the cost of occupied areas. The bullying takes different forms, and the agreement was a crudely aggressive way of Erdogan showing that he has no regard for Cyprus’ sovereignty.
Will the international community, which Christofias had supposedly turned into the “shield of Cyprus” stop the Turkish drilling in our territorial waters, as the government is unlikely to do so? The international community may offer verbal support, but none of its members would take practical steps to protect Cyprus if Turkey decides to cause more tension; and neither would Israel despite its wish to do a co-operation deal on the exploitation of the natural gas.
Our government has been using several unconvincing arguments to persuade us that there was no risk of trouble. Ms Kozakou Marcoulli, said she did not think Turkey would take steps that “would jeopardise its objective of EU accession,” ignoring that this objective has all but been given up. She also believed that Turkey would not attack the rig of a US company, but again this is far from certain considering America’s strategic dependence on Turkey. Ten days ago Ankara joined NATO’s missile shield against Iran, in what was described by a White House official as “probably the biggest strategic decision between the US and Turkey in the past 15 or 20 years.” Would the US jeopardise its strategic deal with Ankara by standing up for an American company?
Unfortunately, we do not appear to have seen the end of drilling saga. We can carry on reporting Turkey, to the UN and EU, of violating international law and our sovereign rights, which she had been doing with impunity for 37 years, but is this adequate security or an effective ‘shield’? There was no flare-up at Block 12, probably because no hydrocarbons have yet been found. But how would our government control the situation if Noble Energy’s drilling hits big deposits of hydrocarbons? This is the big question that Christofias and his advisors must prepare an answer for now that there is still time.
