TURKISH PRIME Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan turned up the heat a notch yesterday, repeating his vow to increase Turkish navy surveillance in the eastern Mediterranean, particularly in the country’s own “exclusive economic zones”.
Commenting on possible new sanctions against Israel, following the latter’s refusal to apologise for killing nine people in a raid on a Gaza-bound flotilla last year, Erdogan told reporters: “We don’t care if it costs $15 million or $150 million. We will not allow anyone to walk all over our honour.”
Turkey has already announced the suspension of all military cooperation and defence trade with Israel while downgrading diplomatic relations with the former regional ally.
Yesterday, Erdogan was quoted by Associated Press once again warned Turkey would increase navy patrols in the eastern Mediterranean.
“Until now, they were running wild in (the eastern Mediterranean). From now on, we will see Turkish ships more often especially in our exclusive economic zones,” he said.
“All the pros and cons of this have been calculated. We were present in these waters in the past, we are present today and we will continue to be present tomorrow,” he added.
Turkish opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu yesterday criticised Erdogan for starting a new war each week with a different country.
He labelled the Turkish government’s foreign policy contradictory, noting that on the one hand, it has agreed to deploy the US missile defence system in Turkey which ensures Israel’s security against possible Iranian attack while at the same time destroying relations with the same country.
The heightened tension between Israel and Turkey comes on the back of repeated warnings by Turkish officials against Cyprus drilling in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Some commentators believe the feud with Israel may be used as a pretext to build up naval patrols in seas between Israel and Cyprus, at a time when both latter countries are discussing collaboration on the extraction and distribution of hydrocarbon deposits in their respective EEZs.
Others see the latest display of tough rhetoric as part of Turkey’s efforts to pursue a “neo-Ottoman” policy of expanding influence in the region, while at the same time scoring Erdogan points domestically where he is trying to make crucial changes to the constitution.
Israeli diplomacy has been uncharacteristically low-key in responding to Turkey’s public outrage, leaving the door open for reconciliation and a return to normal relations. Israel is unlikely to give Turkey an excuse to vent further anger given the already delicate relations between the two but its track record shows the Israeli navy will not sit idly by should the Turkish navy enter its territorial waters.
Regarding Cyprus’ plans to start exploratory drilling before the end of the month, the Cyprus Mail has learnt that current diplomatic thinking in the region is that Turkey has more important issues to contend with than create serious problems for the island.
However, the latest experience with Israel shows that Turkish officials keep promises made, such as, the decision to cut defence trade and diplomatic ties. It remains to be seen whether they will use violence or aggression against Houston-based Noble Energy when drilling begins in its Block 12 concession in Cyprus’ EEZ. Another scenario is that Turkey follows through with its threats and pulls out of ongoing UN-sponsored peace talks on the island.
Predicting Turkey’s future course is not easy. Erdogan has worked hard to develop the image of an impulsive and somewhat unpredictable leader but at the same time Turkey has a long history of realpolitik diplomacy and pursing interests.
As one analyst who wished to remain anonymous put it, Turkey played a “brilliant game” by accepting to host the missile defence system, thereby reducing US criticism of its behaviour towards Israel.
In the meantime, Cyprus is stuck between a rock and a hard place. If President Demetris Christofias chooses to push ahead with drilling, he is essentially calling Turkey’s bluff. Failure to do so effectively acknowledges Turkey’s dominion over the island.
Energy Service head Solon Kassinis told the Cyprus Mail yesterday that he expected drilling to start before October 1. Noble will use the fourth generation Homer Ferrington rig currently drilling in the Noa field offshore from Ashkelon in Israel’s EEZ.
He appeared unfazed by Turkey’s saber rattling: “I expected Turkey to bark but I don’t think they will do anything because what we’ve done is based on international law, and if they want to be considered a country that respects international law, when it has a network of (oil and gas) pipe lines, charging transit fees, how can it?”
According to Kassinis, any fears from Noble have been assuaged by the US Embassy in Nicosia which has told the company to go ahead and expedite the exploration process.
Commerce Minister Praxoulla Antoniadou yesterday called for patience, warning not to take for granted the fact that the start of exploratory drilling will probably be the biggest step taken by Cyprus since joining the EU.
Meanwhile, President of the largest party in the European Parliament, the European People’s Party, Wilfried Martens, yesterday expressed “surprise” at the “unprecedented military threats from Turkish officials regarding the start of oil and gas exploration” by Cyprus.
“Turkey, an EU candidate country, must refrain from threats against an EU member state that also undermine EU’s energy security,” said Martens, adding, “Needless to say, Cyprus is a European pillar of stability in the eastern Mediterranean and, as such, will play a central role in bolstering the EU’s energy security.”
