AFTER TWO and a half years leading UN efforts to reunite the island, there’s one thing UN Special Adviser Alexander Downer’s definitely got going for him: he’s not running for election.
Over his lengthy career in Australian politics, Downer has seen his fair share of criticism, but like most of his predecessors, the crosshairs were set the moment he arrived on the island.
Before Cyprus, Downer completed 11 years as Australian foreign minister, making a name facilitating the introduction of a peacekeeping force in East Timor, keeping asylum seekers off Australia?s shores and vocally supporting Bush’s War on Terror and Iraq.
But when UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon put the feelers out on his candidacy in 2008, the Greek Cypriots were less than keen. Still feeling the backlash of the ‘NO’ campaign, they restricted themselves to subtle hints.
As one diplomat put it, “They say that Secretary-Generals have really sensitive ears and can hear concerns even with the slightest murmur. This one, even if you throw rockets at him…”
And so, armed with Ban’s blessings, Downer arrived all smiles and ready to go, though in the eyes of some, he still belonged to the group of hawkish WASPs (White Anglo-Saxon Protestants) responsible for the chaos and destruction in the Middle East. Despite the fact religion plays little role in his life, unless as he confesses, the plane ride gets a little rough.
Since then, we’ve seen MPs fall over each other in parliament to accuse him of undermining the Cyprus Republic; we’ve heard whispered calls for his replacement; and we’ve watched as he waved the carrot and stick around to those still listening in the great ‘game’ of the Eastern Mediterranean.
In his humble office at the old Nicosia airport with the perfunctory picture frame of Ban on the wall, Downer commented on all the flak.
“I don’t mind at all. I’m not running for election, it makes no difference to me. Nor is it going to change my mind, criticising me in the hope of getting me to change my position and draw different conclusions and become less dispassionate and less neutral in the way I approach the issue. No, I don’t think that’s going to work.
“People can say what they like about me. Go ahead, make my day,” he adds.
Downer insists he has no horse in this race: “Where people make a mistake is where (they say) I would be in the thrall of America or Britain or Turkey or Greece or…Why would I be? I have no interest in that sense.
“I’m actually a very friendly, very open person. I have no investments in Turkey, none in Greece. I have no equities in Cyprus at all. I own a car here, that’s it.”
In his effort to keep ‘momentum’ in the talks, Downer has repeatedly warned that the peace process cannot go on indefinitely and yet, as one seasoned observer put it, the UN continues to facilitate the process seemingly ‘indefinitely’.
In defence of the world body, Downer argues the UN can’t want a solution more than the Cypriots do.
“Cypriots are the people with the equity in this island. They have to have a realistic vision of what they can achieve.”
By realistic, he doesn?t mean a unitary state, however fair it may seem: “It’s not going to happen.”
The only plan on the table now is a bizonal, bicommunal federation.
“My best advice to people is that the only option you’ve got for reunifying Cyprus now is in a federation which does involve power-sharing between the federal and state governments, between Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots.”
For those who want the talks to fail, “Be careful what you wish for.”
Downer coyly insists he is not issuing threats, though one gets the sense that if he weren’t wearing the UN hat, he’d be more brutal.
“People need to think about what the consequences of failure will be.”
One scenario is the financial challenges that would arise.
“The sovereign risk of Cyprus will rise, so investment here will be less attractive than would otherwise be the case. But there?s a second thing, don’t underestimate this property issue.
“If there is no political solution to the property issue, there will still be a solution, and it will be a litigated solution.”
He predicts that Turkey and the Cyprus Republic “will end up with enormous bills to pay for compensation” for the loss of properties on either side of the divide, with Turkey “obviously” getting lumped with the much bigger bill.
Based on current values, Downer estimates that mass litigation for total compensation could run up bills “in the tens of billions of euros”.
And should the talks fail, will the number of settlers in the north grow or shrink?
“I think they will grow,” he says.
While a federal Cyprus government could regulate incoming migrants, without a solution, the Cyprus Republic has no say at all, regardless of international law.
Christofias and Eroglu were locking heads on the settlers issue all last week. Eroglu wants every ‘TRNC citizen’ to get automatic citizenship of a new federal Cyprus. Christofias is willing to accept up to 50,000 settlers.
Eroglu refuses to hold a joint census and only hints at UN collaboration for an independent one he plans to hold in the north.
According to Downer, “the level of trust is pretty low” so for the results of either census to be acceptable to the other side, the UN needs to be involved.
“They need to be confident that the census that’s conducted is genuine, that there’s no fiddling the numbers for political reasons.”
The three main categories of Turkish settlers are: singles, those who are married to Turkish Cypriots, and the children of mixed marriages who were born in Cyprus, like Eroglu’s own grandchildren.
Quoting Turkish Cypriot politicians, Downer estimates that in addition to those categories, there may be another 200,000 Turks who have been resident in the north for more than five years, giving them the automatic right to apply for ‘TRNC citizenship’.
“Here’s a thought. If there is an agreement, then those 200,000 probably wouldn’t be granted citizenship by the new federal united Cyprus government. If there isn’t an agreement…the Turkish Cypriots might decide to give those people so-called citizenship.”
Given the higher living standards in the north compared to Anatolia, without a solution, “the Turkish proportion of the population will continue to grow, quite fast”.
He adds: “Maybe there is an argument that you ain’t seen nothing yet if you can’t negotiate an agreement.”
Asked whether the UN has lost credibility with the repeated calls for progress before upcoming elections in Cyprus and Turkey: “No, I think we were completely right. I think inevitably and unfortunately momentum is just going to be lost through the election period, and the challenge will be not to give up but to try to pick up the momentum after the elections,” he said.
In fact, the process has “slowed right up” making the chances of another tripartite next month very slim, though a June meeting is on the cards.
And post-elections, does the UN have any aces up its sleeve to kick-start the quiescent process?
Downer calls for a “massive effort” to solve the remaining problems. He refers to certain “natural obstacles”, a euphemism for temporal milestones in Cyprob speak, like Cyprus taking over the EU Presidency in July 2012, and the presidential elections in February 2013.
“So they need to get their heads down and really, really negotiate, and negotiate hard.”
But by constantly flagging up all these “natural obstacles” without making clear progress, isn’t the UN making itself look toothless?
“We have a job to do, to help the two sides reach an agreement. But if they can’t do it, it’s not us that’s toothless, it’s them. They’re the people who need the teeth. Obviously if we reach a point where it’s clear the negotiations have failed then there’s nothing more for us to do.”
He argues the Cyprus problem will not remain in the spotlight for ever: “The day will come, the sun will rise one day when it’s clear (the talks) either succeeded or failed. A decision has to be made on (this).”
On a parting note, Downer is asked to list the similarities between Cyprus and Australia: “The weather.”
DOWNER’S VIEW ON:
The fact that Australian jargon can sometimes bring about undesired results:
“I use these Australian expressions and usually it provokes. I said any parrot in a pet shop can tell you that they’re in favour of a solution. That’s an Australian expression, and then I had about six weeks of personal abuse that I had called them parrots. Surely not, surely I called them pet shops.”
The big push in June, post-elections in Cyprus and Turkey:
“But once the elections are out of the way, then we should make a massive effort to try to solve the problems that we have left to solve. We’ve solved some. There’s plenty of convergences. It would be a pity to throw it all away.”
A bizonal, bicommunal federation:
“We, the UN, can’t want a workable solution more than you, the Cypriots. You have to have the passion to want to make this agreement. If you don’t want it, there’s nothing we can do about it.”
The issue of settlers in the north should the talks fail:
“I suspect the Turkish population in the north will continue to grow, because living standards there are higher than in Anatolia. And well, if you take the whole island of Cyprus…the Turkish proportion of the population will continue to grow, quite fast.”
Being objective:
“It’s not our job to take anybody’s side in the context of the negotiations. There are legal issues which favour the Greek Cypriots of course, there’s no question of that, and it’s important to understand that so to qualify our neutrality to that point…But in terms of the negotiations, it’s very important that we are dispassionate and I think most people know, political players may not, that we are dispassionate, that we don’t have anything to gain supporting one side or the other.
So I think in that sense if we were ever to be very critical of one side or the other, they wouldn?t want to see that happen.”
