THE QUESTION everyone is asking after six days of bombardment of Libyan targets by coalition forces is, ‘what happens next?’ The alliance has destroyed Colonel Gaddafi’s air defences and the UN-sanctioned no-fly zone is fully operational. Now, a stalemate is looking to be the most likely outcome, with rebels controlling the east part of the country and troops loyal to Gaddafi the west.
Despite the fact that the regime’s air-power can no longer be used, the rebels have failed to capitalise on it, although they were expected to use the cover provided by the no-fly zone to advance westwards. Poorly-trained, disorganised and without the necessary weaponry they are finding it extremely difficult to cope with Gaddafi’s tanks and heavy artillery. Despite the support of the alliance’s firepower, they have been unable to recapture towns they had been in control of.
Gaddafi troops have had a similar problem despite the use of heavy artillery, multiple rocket launchers and tanks. Without air cover, the troops have been unable to overwhelm rebel forces and wrest control from them. Hence the talk of a stalemate which has in turn given rise to suggestions of a de facto division of Libya into east and west. Such a development would not suit the rebels or the alliance, which would be obliged to maintain a no-fly zone for the foreseeable future, at a considerable cost.
Would the alliance be prepared to foot the cost of a no-fly zone, which in the case of Iraq lasted 10 years? And yet this is the only protection that can be offered to the rebels. If it is lifted, it would only be a matter of time before Gaddafi’s forces, with air cover, crush the insurgents and take control again. Could the allies leave the rebels at the mercy of the colonel’s ruthless regime? We all remember how Saddam Hussein turned on the rebel Kurds of northern Iraq after the coalition troops went home in 1991.
It is very difficult to see the rebels overthrowing Gaddafi, without the deployment of coalition troops on the ground. This option has been explicitly ruled out by UN resolution 1973, which excluded “a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory”. Even if this could be amended, it is doubtful any of the Western coalition partners would be prepared to commit ground troops.
The Western alliance needs to go back to the drawing board as the no-fly zone and the air strikes have failed to deliver a significant advantage to the rebels. Unless the alliance has decided it has done all it can do to protect civilians and help the rebels.
