THE TALKS look set to continue without any imposed deadlines, arbitration or international conference until the election break around April, after which the leaders could face a hot summer of negotiations.
Yesterday’s meeting at the UN headquarters in Geneva between the UN chief and two leaders failed to deliver what many promised or warned it would though it did set a path for the UN to maintain momentum in the talks for the coming months without entering into a blame game.
Prior to the key meeting at the Palais des Nations, there was a lot of hard talk emanating from the Turkish Cypriot negotiating team as reported in the press.
Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu was quoted saying he would seek from the UN to ensure the talks reach a conclusion by the end of March, with or without a solution. He also sought, as he did in New York last November, to persuade the UN to organise an international conference on the Cyprus problem.
It is clear he failed on both accounts.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon did not even make reference to the date of another tripartite meeting. Instead, he would report to the UN Security Council at the end of February on the state of the talks and pledged to meet again soon to assess progress and encourage further convergences.
According to official sources, this meeting will most likely happen before the peace process takes a “break” before elections in Cyprus in May and Turkey in June. In between, Ban expects the leaders to continue efforts to narrow the differences between the two sides.
Regarding an international conference, the same sources said Ban repeated what he said in November, that such a conference could be called when the two sides reach agreement or get very close to agreement on the internal matters of a solution. In this case, there could also be room at the table for the five permanent members of the UN Security Council.
In his statement yesterday, Ban spoke of progress in the talks since November. According to the UNSG, both leaders identified the core issues yet to be resolved. Both submitted a practical plan on how to move forward. And both worked on getting convergences through “bridging proposals”, particularly on the first three chapters of governance and power sharing, EU affairs and the economy.
Before the meeting, Eroglu was reported by the media suggesting a number of key revisions to the convergences already reached between President Demetris Christofias and his former interlocutor, Mehmet Ali Talat on governance and power-sharing.
These included the proposal for a reunited Cyprus to be the product of two founding states with separate sovereignty, something similar to the Swiss constitution. The Turkish Cypriot leader also reportedly suggested a Belgian model where the citizens of each constituent state would be decided upon based on their language skills. Given that Belgium has not had a government for seven months, this raised a number of pertinent questions.
The Cyprus Mail has learnt that during the four and a half hour meeting with Ban, which included a working lunch, the two leaders agreed to reconfirm their commitment to the convergences made between Christofias and Talat on the first three chapters.
This is where Ban’s reference to the two leaders “clearing the air on several key issues” comes into play. Eroglu gave various assurances that he would stick to convergences already agreed and not muddy the waters further. This seems likely on the EU affairs and economy chapters though remains to be seen in practice on governance when the talks resume between now and February’s end.
On the remaining “outstanding core issues”, Ban said the two leaders discussed them “in a more interrelated fashion, since a settlement proposal will need to consist of an integrated package across chapters”.
This hints at the efforts of both sides to link various chapters. Christofias has long argued he cannot come to a conclusion on the right of return for refugees until he knows what the situation is on territory and on the number of settlers remaining on the island.
For his part, Eroglu has tried to link the above issues with that of security, bringing the question of Turkish guarantees into the equation.
Ban also offered to provide UN experts on the property issue. The Turkish Cypriots prefer the idea of UN experts sitting down with both sides and giving ideas on how to overcome the impasse. The Greek Cypriots, however, have resisted such efforts, constantly working to avoid any hint of arbitration or mediation by the UN.
The UNSG’s decision to “encourage” rather than “invite” or “oblige” the two sides to make use of UN experts reflects a certain sensitivity on Ban’s part towards Greek Cypriot fears.
Where does this leave the talks on property? Not in a great place really. Both sides have to keep working towards convergences in the following month. This may result in a focus on getting some concrete pledges on the governance chapter while also inching closer on property.
However, it is more than likely, progress on the latter three chapters will wait for the resumption of talks post-elections in Cyprus and Turkey. This is when one could expect the UN to increase the pressure a notch so the talks don’t risk floundering in the sweltering summer sun.
In the meantime, it appears efforts by UN Special Adviser Alexander Downer to get the EU more involved in the process did not pan out. Before the talks, Downer spoke to Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Istanbul where the latter voiced his displeasure with German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s apportioning of blame to the Turkish side for the lack of progress in the talks.
Just before yesterday’s meeting, Downer then went to Brussels where he met with a number of EU officials, including EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fule.
His reported efforts to get the EU to balance the climate somewhat post-Merkel did not seem to reach fruition. For now, the EU remains an outside power, offering technical advice only.
The Greek Cypriot negotiating team clearly disagrees with DISY opposition leader Nicos Anastassiades’ view to get the EU more involved in the UN process.
The worry is the EU will become a battle ground between friends of Turkey and the Greek Cypriots, throwing the talks into disarray.
For now though, for better or for worse, the process remains Cypriot-led.
