Turkey could gain €17 billion a year from a Cyprus solution

TURKEY stands to gain a peace dividend of over €17 billion every year from a solution of the Cyprus problem, according to new research published by the Cyprus Centre of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), with new annual gross revenue of €12.3 billion and annual cost savings of 5.1 billion.

This is equivalent to 3.5 per cent of Turkey’s GDP. A preview of benefits to Greece also identified at least €3 billion per year for Greece, the researchers said.

The research, entitled, The Day After III: The Cyprus dividend for Turkey and Greece, is the third in the series of Day After reports written by Özlem O?uz Çilsal, Praxoula Antoniadou Kyriacou and Fiona Mullen.

The estimates made by the three economists are based on analysis of hard statistical data, they said.

They found that Turkey would not only make significant savings from property litigation and military expenditure but also stands to make huge financial gains from the transformation of the Turkey-Cyprus-Greece region into one of lasting peace and stability. “This, in turn, will have positive spillover effects for tourism, transport, financial and business services, and last, but not least, energy, the report said.

“Many analyses of a solution’s impact on the economy focus narrowly on the opportunities for intra-island trade,” said the report.

“In the three Day After reports, the authors have sought to remind the public that the benefits will be far wider in scope. Not only would reunification create significant new opportunities for Cyprus to do business with Turkey, but tremendous benefits also await Turkey and Greece if a peaceful resolution to this decades-old conflict can be found.

Alexander Downer, the Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Cyprus, who gave the opening address at the launch of the report last night said: “This report is a timely reminder of what business people on this island have been telling me for a long time: that a solution will bring huge opportunities for Cyprus, Turkey and Greece. And these benefits will long outlive any of the short-term costs.”

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