TODAY we mark the 36th anniversary of the Turkish invasion. North of the Green Line there will be celebrations and triumphal speeches while south of it there will be a sombre mood featuring a totally different type of speech. We have seen and heard it all before and seem condemned to do so this time next year again, because, despite the rhetoric, the maintenance of the status quo appears to suit the political leadership of both sides, not to mention Turkey for which the continuation of the occupation no longer has a cost.
This is why it is very difficult to entertain much hope of the latest peace talks yielding an agreement. Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu believes in a two-state solution, even though he has been instructed by Ankara to adopt a softer line at the talks and has done so. President Christofias, believes in a re-unification but has shown time and again that he is not willing to take any big risk to achieve his objective. He is content for the talks to continue at a slow pace – no asphyxiating time frames – without ever reaching a conclusion. It is the one issue on which he sees eye to eye with Eroglu.
To a large extent, both are in tune with the wishes of the people they represent. Majorities on both sides are opposed to re-unification, for very different reasons. This is understandable considering the innate conservatism and aversion to risk which characterize both communities. An agreement involving power-sharing, territorial re-adjustments, property compensations and movement of people is a big risk which few people on either side are prepared to take for the obvious reason – they are content with the way things are.
Why support an agreement that would give rise to an uncertain future? The fact that the benefits of an agreement have never been sold to the Greek Cypriots has not helped things. In 2004, the Turkish Cypriots voted in favour of the Annan plan because the benefits of the deal had been very well marketed on their side, whereas the Greek Cypriots rejected it because it was presented in a totally negative way by the political leadership and the media. Other factors were also at play but there is little doubt that the majority of Greek Cypriots did not need much convincing.
Six years have passed since the referendum and the majority of people on both sides appear to have come to terms with the idea that the status quo will, by default, become the solution of the Cyprus problem. This is the easy option for everyone, including the politicians, as it is perceived as the no-risk path. Of course, nobody ever mentions the fact that maintenance of the status quo would be a big victory for Turkey, which would hold on to everything it seized by force 36 years ago. We might realize this when we are marking the 50th anniversary of the Turkish invasion.
