Endgame looms for Cyprus talks

WITH TEN days to go before the two leaders sit at the negotiating table for the first time since the Turkish Cypriot election, one question hanging over the international community is what happens if nothing happens?
According to various sources, the end of the year has become an unofficial deadline for the talks to go somewhere serious. UN Special Adviser Alexander Downer has made it clear they cannot go on forever while sources suggest the Australian diplomat will not renew his six-month contract if there is no movement by December.
One diplomatic source said: “If things are going well, that is, the two sides agree on a settlement and to put it to referenda by that time, there’d be no reason for him to leave.
However, if there is no real movement by the end of the year, “All bets are off, you’re on your own,” he added. 
Another noted: “Downer made it clear the UN and he can not be here for ever. You get the sense his patience will eventually run out if there is no progress. By the end of the year, you’re getting close to election year for Turkey and the Republic of Cyprus.”
The concern among some analysts is that President Demetris Christofias and Eroglu will fail to find a middle ground and instead pirouette around a solution just enough to avoid being blamed for obstructing one. 
Recent statements suggest new Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu dances to Ankara’s tune. His almost clear commitment to continue the talks where they left off and his expressed desire to see a solution by the end of the year add weight to this impression.
On top of that, the appointment of his negotiating team head proves that Turkey will not allow Eroglu to come across as “the intransigent one” in the talks. Where as some feared he would choose members of the old guard, from Rauf Denktash’s former team, he went for an academic with plenty of recent experience in the peace talks.
“Eroglu opted for Kudret Ozersay. He opted for technocracy over politics because it’s demonstrative that the Turkish side does indeed intend not to grandstand but to continue where negotiations left off from,” said Erol Kaymak, an international relations expert.
Kaymak argued that Turkish diplomacy has changed and is sincere to the extent that they are willing to change the status quo in Cyprus. “But what does that mean? There are multiple different end games. In the Turkish ideal world, ultimately, one could be the recognition of the TRNC,” he said.
The academic argued that the likelihood of “a normalisation of the Cyprus problem”, where the ceasefire line becomes more like a border would be enhanced if Christofias came out looking like the “bad guy” in an eventual stalemate.
If the two sides get passed the next hurdle in the talks on property, and Christofias then hits a wall on governance, specifically the rotating presidency, which government partner DIKO and former partner EDEK are categorically against, then things will get very hairy for the Greek Cypriot side.
December will be a crucial conjecture for all parties to the conflict as Turkey once again awaits an assessment report on its EU accession path, the direct trade regulation will most likely resurface and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon will submit his end of year reports to the Security Council on his Good Offices mission and UNFICYP peacekeeping force in Cyprus, based on Downer’s recommendations.
There’s also the option that should the talks sizzle out, Turkey will remain “one step ahead” of the Greek Cypriots. “If Turkey withdraws some troops from the buffer zone, the next day the UN Security Council will meet, and Turkey will have leverage over UNFICYP,” said Kaymak.
However, a diplomatic source played down the likelihood of UNFICYP withdrawing since this would require approval from all five permanent members of the Security Council. “You would need the Russians and Chinese to support such a resolution and they tend to vote the way the Republic of Cyprus wants,” he said.
A source close to the negotiations said it was very unlikely UNFICYP would leave if there was no solution by the end of the year but their presence on the island would no longer be a given.
The source said the UNSG’s June report will likely contain some kind of an “implicit deadline”, a hint that the Good Offices have already been here two and a half years. Instead of waiting until December to review the situation, Downer may suggest an interim evaluation before then to see where the talks are going.
If things are not going anywhere by the end of year, there will be a recommendation to close them down. On UNFICYP, the impression is that there won’t be a drastic pull out, but their presence won’t be taken for granted anymore. More questions will be asked than usual before each six-month renewal, said the source.
The same source said Eroglu will likely play a charming and flexible role in the talks, leaving the onus on Christofias to show that he can deliver the goods and bring on board the other parties. If he cannot persuade the international community that a solution is in reach, then international sympathy will once again move towards Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots.