IF THE FORECASTS of the pollsters (or should we say pseudo-pollsters?) are correct, ‘Prime Minister’ Dervis Eroglu should easily win today’s ‘presidential elections’ in the north. The last opinion poll, published two weeks ago, had the hard-line, nationalist candidate securing an outright victory, without the need of a run-off contest next Sunday. It gave Eroglu 53 per cent of the vote, with Mehmet Ali Talat trailing by 11 percentage points – a big difference to cover in 14 days.
Had the electorate been bigger, this would have been an unassailable lead but there are only 164,000 registered voters in the north which makes it easier for the difference to be covered. The Talat camp’s primary objective has been to prevent Eroglu winning outright today so their candidate has another few days to cover the difference. Turkey might offer him some help if there is a run-off, considering the good relations he has with the Erdogan government.
The truth is that Talat is in a weak position. His CTP party was punished in the ‘parliamentary’ elections for a series of corruption scandals for which the voters seem to attribute responsibility to Talat as well. The bad performance of the economy has not helped, even though Eroglu’s ‘government’ has not brought about any marked improvement. On the contrary, he has been lumbered with the unpopular task of cutting public spending, on instructions from Ankara, but not even this appeared to have affected his popularity.
This popularity is linked to the media support he enjoys. His UBP party exercises complete control of the ‘state’ broadcaster Bayrak which, according to received opinion, acts as the official promoter of Eroglu’s candidacy. He also enjoys the support of the of the biggest private media organisation, which publishes the top circulation Kibris newspaper.
Under the circumstances, it is difficult to know to what extent Eroglu’s hard-line positions on the Cyprus problem are responsible for his big lead in the polls. While he certainly has boosted his support among people living in the Morphou area, by saying he will never agree to its return to the Greek Cypriot side, it is impossible to say whether his insistence on preserving the ‘TRNC’ is a vote-winner. The Turkish Cypriots could be suffering from Cyprus problem fatigue, which seems to be the case among the majority of Greek Cypriots.
Then again, the significant progress made in the talks does not appear to have enhanced Talat’s election prospects, indicating that the Turkish Cypriots might not be as keen on a settlement as they were in the previous ‘presidential’ election. With the direct trade regulation set to be approved by the EU in the not too distant future, there could be less incentive for re-unification, thus further strengthening Eroglu’s separatist agenda.
But would an Eroglu victory sound the death knell of the re-unification efforts, as many Greek Cypriot politicians and analysts have been arguing, not without justification. Eroglu has played up this point in his campaign. While assuring voters that he would continue the negotiations with President Christofias he has repeatedly spelt out that he would not be making anywhere near as many concessions as Talat.
Nobody expects him to adopt a particularly constructive approach, but it would be naive to think that he would take his personal agenda to the talks. If Turkey were sincerely committed to a settlement, there was no way it would allow Eroglu, a provincial politician with less power than the mayor of small Turkish city, to throw a spanner in the works. Talat put the point across very clearly when he said, “In the event you do not comply with Turkey’s instructions, you cannot pay the salaries, you cannot build roads, you cannot do anything.”
Eroglu has been in Turkish Cypriot politics long enough to be aware of this reality and thus to know his limits. His general positions in the talks would be dictated by Ankara, even though he would have some room to manoeuvre and to make things difficult. The scope he has for blocking progress would be a reflection of the degree of Ankara’s interest in a settlement. But it is impossible that a provincial politician, whether he is called Talat or Eroglu would be allowed to mess with Turkey’s foreign policy objectives, whatever they are.
It is true that a win for Talat would be more helpful to the ongoing talks, but an Eroglu victory would not be as disastrous as some believe, as long as the Erdogan government believes that a Cyprus settlement is in Turkey’s broader interests.
