THE BRITISH Appeals Court ruling on the Orams case could weaken Mehmet Ali Talat’s chances of re-election as Turkish Cypriot leader, in turn diminishing the chances of a solution, said diplomats and officials close to the talks yesterday.
The international community is “aware” the ruling could have an impact on the talks but seems more concerned it could undermine Talat’s position in the upcoming ‘presidential’ elections.
As one source put it: “If Dervis Eroglu [Talat’s main contender] wins, you’re not looking at a solution for another five years.”
One diplomat agreed that the ruling would not make things easy for Talat, though he believed ultimately it was not a “game changer” for the talks.
“Everyone understands, whether they admit it or not, that the courts cannot solve all the problems of disputed property. It can resolve a limited number of cases but to resolve questions comprehensively and practically for the people concerned, you need a more comprehensive political solution,” he said.
While no one could stop Greek Cypriots claiming their rights in the courts, “it will not constitute an effective remedy if it takes forever and if the counterparty cannot satisfy the judgement rendered”.
“If there is no political solution, will they ever get their land back or receive compensation,” he added.
Another diplomat said the ruling was less of a shock, following a similar decision last year by the European Court of Justice, when there was a “serious danger” of Talat walking out of the talks.
“It really depends how everyone reacts now. If Christofias comes out triumphalist, then Talat will be obliged to react. Both leaders will be under pressure from their opposition and constituencies to react to this,” he said.
“Christofias is in a stronger position, but this makes it harder for him to make concessions because you have the likes of DIKO who will say ‘we’ve won the big one’. It’s great for Eroglu though, he’ll accuse Talat of failing to protect property in the north, and that’s another blow for Talat’s re-election hopes.
“I don’t think the ruling is really helpful in any way,” he added.
The diplomat warned that while Greek Cypriots could pursue legal remedies, each case was judged on its own merit. The Orams case was specifically chosen by the Greek Cypriot legal team because it was considered water-tight, he noted.
“The worst case scenario is you get a load of no-win-no-fee lawyers arriving on the island and Talat rushing to close the checkpoints,” he said
One reliable source close to the talks agreed that the Cyprus problem could not be solved through legal means. “Contrary to what some people are saying, you cannot ignore the political dimension and think it can all be solved in the courts. Bear in mind, court decisions can have both positive and negative consequences.”
“The decision was undoubtedly positive for the Greek Cypriot side and will certainly be used at the negotiating table on property. But if we think we can take all refugees back with this, we are wrong. It’s just another weapon we have,” he said.
The source said the ruling would make EU citizens think two or three times before buying Greek Cypriot properties on the cheap in the north, creating a “boomerang” in the market.
“Yes, we may not be able to implement the rulings in Cyprus but people are risking their assets back in their home countries. But this does not solve the property issue, we need a comprehensive solution.”
Asked whether the talks would be negatively affected now with Turkish Cypriots reluctant to touch on property in next week’s second phase of intensive talks, the source said this was not an option at this late stage of the game.
“Talat needs progress to create optimism within the Turkish Cypriot community. If not, he will lose the elections for sure. Even with progress, he is not sure of victory but hope dies last,” he said.
Does the ruling strengthen the hand of Eroglu, who still talks of a two-state solution? “No, his position of a non-solution is undermined by this decision,” he said, referring to the fact that the economy in the north could no longer rely on selling Greek Cypriot properties.
Another official close to the talks said the ruling was to be expected, though it doesn’t help the two sides come closer to a settlement. While the rights of the original owners cannot be ignored, “you are not going to get Turkish Cypriots to vote in favour of a solution if everyone gets their property back,” he said.
In any case, he added, recent polls suggest the majority of Greek Cypriot refugees, 64 per cent, would “definitely not” return to their original homes if they came under the control of the Turkish Cypriot constituent state in an agreed solution.
Asked whether the ruling could have any impact on the negotiations, the source noted Greek Cypriots could argue the case for including “loss of use” in any compensation package, “but this could also bankrupt Cyprus, so what’s the point?”
