Where to now for the talks?

THE INTENSIVE talks between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities kick off tomorrow but will Demetris Christofias and Mehmet Ali Talat be able to accomplish in just six sessions what they have not done in the 60 or so meetings over the past 16 months?
Admittedly, some convergences have been achieved between the two sides, but as Christofias himself has repeatedly said, we are not anywhere close to a solution.
“There has been some movement from both sides in getting closer, but a lot more could have been done,” a diplomatic source told the Sunday Mail.
The new round of talks is being held in the run up to April’s elections in the north, where the Turkish Cypriot community will be asked to choose its leader and negotiator.
United Nations special envoy Alexander Downer said there has not been a decision yet on whether there will be a break in the negotiations during the campaign.
But inevitably there will be a hiatus as Talat – widely believed to stand as candidate — will concentrate on being re-elected.
“There will be at least a slowdown in discussions,” the diplomat said.
However, “I think discussions will go on at a representative level, though it is not impossible that leaders could meet.”
Christofias has said there was no aim to solve the problem before April’s vote.
“There is no target to solve the Cyprus problem before elections in the occupied north. As a result, we will continue negotiations after the elections with whomever the Turkish Cypriot community prefers to be its leader,” the president said.
Polls in the north show Talat trailing behind Dervis Eroglu, a hardliner whose potential election is not expected to be conducive to the talks.
Was the timing of the talks designed to give Talat a boost? Something to show his seemingly disillusioned electorate?
“I believe the fact that the talks take place at this moment is not something to be critical about,” said Stavros Tompazos, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Cyprus. “Why not help Talat if that is the reason? I do not consider it a mistake to help in this indirect way”
Tompazos said there is a perception among the Greek Cypriots that Turkish Cypriot leaders do not play such a big role and that it is Turkey who calls the shots.
No one doubts Turkey’s major role but one also has to consider the alliances built by Turkish Cypriot leaders with Turkey, Tompazos said.
While former Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash aligned himself with the army – a very powerful institution in Turkey – Talat chose to have stronger relations with Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, which makes him more conciliatory.
Opposition DISY thinks the timing of the intensive talks was wrong and they were doomed to fail.
“It does not mean we are wiser but I believe at this point, before the election to vote for a Turkish Cypriot leader, positions toughen,” DISY chief Nicos Anastassiades said recently.
Party spokesman Haris Georgiades stressed that DISY wants the talks to succeed: “We would very much want to see progress and a positive outcome.”
He noted however that the first person to express pessimism has been President Christofias himself.
According to DISY, Christofias has his own share of responsibility for this pessimistic prospect.
“The talks should have been held earlier,” Georgiades told the Sunday Mail.
It was a mistake to reach the point where Talat is in an election period – with the polls showing him trailing – and expect him to be conciliatory, Georgiades said.
Georgiades seized the opportunity to remind Christofias of the pivotal role DISY has played in the process of a potential solution of the Cyprus problem.
“We are ready to support the president. Of course, he never asked for it in the past two years and I don’t expect he will now,” Georgiades said.
The three chapters to be discussed by the two leaders during the intensive talks are governance, EU affairs, and the economy.
These are three chapters where the Greek Cypriot side has something to give, Georgiades said. “It is therefore logical not to expect a positive stance (from the Turkish Cypriots).”
His point was made clear by the proposals the Turkish Cypriot side submitted this week on the issue of governance and power-sharing.
It became obvious that the conditions – as reported in the media – set by the Turkish Cypriot side could not be accepted by the Greek Cypriots.
DISY believes it is not wise to enter a give-and-take procedure on these three chapters when the big, substantial issues regarding, property, territory, settlers and security were still open.
Tompazos would not say these three were chapters where the Greek Cypriot side has something to give.
“They are relatively easier than others. We could get progress and create a positive climate,” he said.
Coalition partner DIKO deputy Andreas Angelides does not think there will be any positive outcome since any kind of negotiation was faced with Turkish intransigence.
And Turkey “expects concessions beyond what we have already given,” Angelides said.
He said Turkey has repeatedly spoken of two peoples, two religions and two languages, indicating she wants a two-state solution.
“Turkey has no reason to give us anything,” he added, criticising Christofias for not making use of the EU. “The only power we have.”
Angelides warned that the negotiations could lead to a point where the Greek Cypriot side would be blamed for the failure of the talks.
The first round of intensive talks is scheduled for January 11, 12 and 13.
The second round is scheduled for January 25, 26 and 27.
In between, there will also be meetings between the two leaders’ representatives.