AFTER all the tough talk and the breast beating, the government is now urging “calm and patience” over a draft European Council report that makes no mention of possible sanctions against Turkey’s EU accession process, despite its failure to normalise relations with the Republic of Cyprus.
On Thursday, politicians had queued up to lament the European Parliament’s decision to approve the Council’s draft report, despite the vain efforts of Cypriot MEPs to include an amendment threatening sanctions in case of Turkey’s failure to comply with obligations to recognise the Republic and open its ports and airports to Cypriot traffic.
The government is now trying to play down expectations ahead of next month’s European Council that will assess Turkey’s progress. While hinting that there is still time to have the document changed before its final adoption, its commitment to consult with Greece and other European partners is clear indication that nothing in reality will change.
The truth is that this game has become as tiresome as it is familiar, playing itself out before every key stage in Turkey’s accession talks, following an utterly predictable pattern. In the build-up to the date, we are subjected to a frenzy of bluster, finger-waving assertions of uncompromising ‘principle’, and exhortations to our European partners to ‘stand up to their obligations’. Our European partners invariably let us down, sparking a round of righteous self-pity, before the government of the day limply acquiesces to the very statement or report allowing Turkey to continue on its way.
What is so depressing is that this pantomime shows a shocking lack of understanding of the realities at play – an ostrich syndrome deeply disturbing given our leaders’ stated commitment to work for a solution – exposing us to our European partners as B-grade amateurs who cannot be taken seriously.
The thinking behind this so-called policy is the late Tassos Papadopoulos’ vision of a ‘European solution’, in which the threat of Cyprus’ veto could be used as lever to extract a solution tailor-made to Greek Cypriot desires from a Turkey desperate to join the European Union. The reality is that even the tough talking Papadopoulos failed miserably in every attempt, making the current government’s posturing all the more ridiculous.
Worse still, the balance of the game has changed. Big players in the European game, led by France, are now openly opposed to Turkey ever joining the European Union, reducing whatever little leverage Cyprus ever had to nil. With Ankara under little illusion about the final outcome of the game, there is no way it feels the slightest pressure to compromise its stand on Cyprus.
At the same time, both Europe and Turkey feel it is in their mutual interest to keep the process of accession talks on track, irrespective of their final destination. While national politicians may not ultimately want Turkey in the European Union, there is no desire to upset a key strategic ally, whose stability in such a volatile region is of vital importance to the EU. In the real world, what do our politicians think will come first: Cyprus’ anger at Turkish bullying over its offshore gas exploration, or the EU’s desire to complete the Nabucco pipeline through Turkey, bypassing Russia to give Europe access to Caspian energy reserves?
Ultimately, we have to ask ourselves what this says about the government’s commitment to a solution, at a time when we should be in the final straight of negotiations that must conclude before the spring. If the government was serious about reunification, this should be a time when we were playing down the rhetoric, focusing on the positive, preparing public opinion ahead of a possible referendum that could be little more than two or three months away. Instead of which, President Demetris Christofias was last week writing to his European counterparts a letter berating Turkey – and his Turkish Cypriot interlocutor at the talks – in terms that suggest he is neither close to, nor has the desire for a solution.
In that letter, the President expressed his “conviction that we should review our position, in consultation with partners, towards Turkish accession negotiations in the December European Council, and to take specific measures unless there are visible signs of a changed attitude on the part of Turkey in the meantime.”
But why does he expect the EU to impose sanctions? If things are so bad and Turkey acting in such ill faith, what is the government doing at such an advanced stage of negotiations with the Turkish Cypriots. Surely Cyprus should lead the way in imposing sanctions by walking out of talks to which “Turkey has only paid lip-service so far”. Of course, what it wants is for Europe to wave the stick, forcing Turkey to walk out and putting Cyprus back in its comfort zone of honest victim betrayed by Turkish intransigence. It won’t happen, Cyprus will put its tail between its legs and accept whatever the big players decide in December. But it’s a charade that gives little confidence in our leaders’ ability to guide this country to a better future.
