THE ELECTIONS in Germany late last month gave a clear-cut mandate to the chancellor Angela Merkel to govern again the country in coalition with the pro-business Free Democrats.
In the new Parliament (Bundestag) of 622 deputies, the Christian Democratic Union of Angela Merkel (CDU) together with its Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Socialist Union (CSU) and the Free Democrats (FDP) of Guido Westerwelle will have the majority with 322 deputies.
The parties of the centre-right, CDU/CSU and FDP, having their electorate in the middle and upper classes, scored a resounding victory (48.4%) against those of the centre-left (34.9%), the Social Democrats (SPD) of Frank – Walter Steinmeier and the leftists (Die Linke) of Oscar Lafontaine, having the workers as their traditional clientele.
The addition of the 68 seats won by the Greens completes the composition of the Bundestag, which is the only organ directly elected by the people and has become over the years the pillar of German democracy.
The new government will have to face several problems, because of its composition, which necessitate compromises. Amidst a world economic crisis, dealing with Germany’s difficult public finances represents perhaps the biggest challenge, given the position of the parties of the new coalition.
Strengthened by the election results, the FDP will try to promote its “business agenda” and achieve tax cuts, while the CDU is warning its liberal partners that tax cuts are unaffordable right now, promising however to implement them in 2011. The purpose being the reduction of the public debt.
The question of reforming the welfare state is undoubtedly a big issue, but it appears that Angela Merkel is not disposed to abolish it. It should be mentioned here that it was mainly on this issue that the Socialists of the SPD suffered a heavy defeat. Linked to the question of strengthening public finances is the functioning of nuclear power plants. These plants should close by 2020. The new government stated, however, that it will allow the functioning of several of them, with a view to increasing public revenue through taxation of their profits.
Coming now to matters concerning foreign policy, one should not expect spectacular changes. There are, however, case when this will occur, as a result of the participation of the FDP in the Government. First of all, the Polish-German relations will have greater potential to be upgraded, because of a more open stance of the FDP towards Poland. In actual fact, the FDP in its election campaign pledged dialogue and reconciliation on numerous contentious affairs between the two countries. Within this climate of understanding of the problems of Warsaw it should be expected a further improvement of the good neighbourly relations with Poland.
Another issue is that of the participation of the Bundeswehr (German army) in the war in Afghanistan. Linked to the broader question of German military engagement abroad, the FDP sees a need for major reforms in the structure and orientation of the German army, so as to increase its capability for military operations out-of-theatre.
While the FDP has a critical stance on the military involvement in Afghanistan, in principle it supports the Bundeswehr’s engagement there. On the other hand, the CDU is the most fervent supporter of this involvement, ignoring the fact that two-thirds of the German population is against it.
Finally, the question of the accession of Turkey to the European Union will be seen through different lenses. In the previous coalition the SPD of the former Foreign Minister Steinmeier was strongly in favour of accession, whereas Angela Merkel was opposed to it, proposing a privileged relationship of Turkey with the E.U. The FDP believes that Turkey considerably lags behind in internal reforms and has substantial deficits in many other areas. They, therefore, do not see Turkish accession to the EU in the coming years.
Concluding, we observe that given the fact that after reunification, German elections have rarely been dominated by foreign policy issues, the burden will be placed on domestic issues, and in particular the economy. With an improved welfare system, competitive German enterprises and stable public finances, compared to other countries, the future of the new Government looks bright. Another German “economic wonder” of the Merkel era will not come as a surprise.
n Dr Andrestinos N, Papadopoulos is a former ambassador for the Republic of Cyprus
