GREEK PRIME Minister George Papandreou’s flash visit to Istanbul on Friday injected a breath of fresh air to the worn down Greco-Turkish relations, ten years on from rapprochement, and to the regional handling of the Cyprus problem by the two NATO enemies.
Unlike his predecessor, Papandreou has always played a more active role in efforts to solve the conflict. On his first visit to Istanbul as premier, even wearing his foreign minister’s hat, Papandreou spoke to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan about the need to show a more “conciliatory” approach on Cyprus. He also spoke directly to the Turkish people about the need to talk straight about the problems faced and to solve them. Speaking from the Patriarchate, he called on both countries to help “free Cyprus” of motherlands, occupation troops, walls and division.
Papandreou’s direct approach balanced with a display of emotional honesty allows him to appeal to both Turkish society and leadership. On hearing of his surprise decision to attend a Balkan foreign ministers’ meeting, his first foray abroad as leader, Erdogan changed plans and left Ankara to meet Papandreou for over an hour. The Greek PM also showed his appeal to the common man on the street, visiting the grave of his former counterpart Ismail Cem. Papandreou laid down leaves from the olive trees that the two former foreign ministers planted together in Greece back in the heyday of Greco-Turkish rapprochement between 1999 and 2004.
Although Papandreou decided that his first official visit abroad as PM will be to Cyprus on October 19, the symbolic significance of his speedy trip over the Aegean as foreign minister will not go amiss in diplomatic circles.
But how does this affect Cyprus? Will it impact on Greek Cypriot efforts to convince Turkey to make some concessions before December’s EU progress report on Turkey? Will it help end the division?
The government welcomed Papandreou’s visit, as did DISY and DIKO leader Marios Garoyian. The remaining party leaders treated it cautiously, oscillating between neutral and suspicious. It is no surprise that on the same day Papandreou made his historic visit, the media was preoccupied with a report from apparent diplomatic sources in Athens, saying that the Greek PM went there to discuss a Plan B on Cyprus, which Papandreou rubbished in no uncertain terms.
“He took a very positive initiative given that the talks are at a crucial point and need a push forward. On its own however, it can’t bring results if there isn’t a corresponding response from both sides on the island, particularly the Greek Cypriots,” said political analyst Louis Igoumenides yesterday.
The analyst argued that, apart from the government and DISY, all other parties and the archbishop saw the move as suspicious, bearing in mind Papandreou’s previous support for the Annan plan. This latter response was both “naïve and dangerous” since it showed how these parties would react come the time to vote on a compromise solution. President Demetris Christofias must appeal to the people, tell them the truth on the type of solution available, convince them of the need for a solution soon and stop pandering to the rejectionist parties even within his own coalition, said Igoumenides.
“If Christofias works with Papandreou but at the same time doesn’t make an opening to DISY, which showed its willingness to support the government on the talks, then we can’t have a solution,” he said.
Regional expert Dr James Ker-Lindsay from the LSE said Papandreou’s visit was unexpected and “highly symbolic”, sending a very powerful message that he’s determined to improve relations with Turkey. However, given the high tensions over the Aegean this summer, it remains to be seen how much difference he can make.
“At some point, after ten years of rapprochement, Turkey will have to do something on the key issues, like the Halki seminary, the Aegean and Cyprus.”
Even if Christofias aligns himself with the “motherland” and works closely with Papandreou, this will not necessarily silence the sceptics and critics. “Nationalism was always tied to Greece in the past, but with the late President Tassos Papadopoulos, he was a Greek Cypriot nationalist, and the nationalists will respond in the same way to Papandreou,” said Ker-Lindsay.
However, if Christofias has Papandreou standing firmly behind him and doesn’t get put off by negative voices, then progress can be made, at least on the domestic front, said the analyst. For its part, how Turkey will respond to its EU obligation to open its ports and airports and on the core issues in the talks remains to be seen.
