The recent leaked document claiming that Greek Cypriots are not pulling their weight over a ‘Cyprus solution’ should make politicians sit up and ponder. What is the likely effect of a breakdown in talks? Since many observers believe that if Talat and Christofias cannot engineer a solution then no one can, one has to say that we are now in the ‘last chance saloon’.
So if talks break down do we really believe that the status quo will continue with the north continuing to be isolated by the rest of the world and Greek Cyprus using its EU vote to restrict their activities and impede Turkey?
Looking into one’s crystal ball, I would like to set out a likely scenario and one that should make Greek Cypriots shudder. If we accept that the rest of the world will retain trade sanctions on the north, which I doubt, and that the EU refuses to accept Turkey into the EU, then there is an obvious outcome.
Because of its isolation, the north has become increasingly dependent on Turkey. Without the financial support from Turkey, the north will become bankrupt.
The Turkish Government, now free of EU membership aspirations, will find it difficult to continue support for northern Cyprus without public support. At a time of recession, the financial burden of the north will lead to a campaign to formally annexe the north into Turkey.
What and who can stop Turkey from taking this step? The toothless United Nations and the lacklustre EU? Turkey can rightly argue that it did everything to support a Cyprus solution, that the rest of the world refused to lift the isolation of the north, that 50 per cent of the population in the north is Turkish and therefore Turkey has an obligation to them.
Yes, initially there might be political statements made by various countries condemning the move but what realistic action could be taken?
Turkey is now a world power. It is not the same country that invaded Cyprus in 1974. It has matured into a nation that commands respect. It has significant strategic alliances with the United States and Russia. It is the gateway to power supplies to Europe and is now a powerful UN member. If the world has to choose about alienating Turkey or supporting Greek Cyprus, then, outside of Greece, we know the likely answer to that.
And after that consider the following. Turkey banishes the UN from its annexed territory and takes back Varosha. Millions of Russian roubles and Israeli shekels are pumped into revitalising the once heart of the tourist industry in Cyprus. It again becomes the place to go in Cyprus. Paphos, Larnaca and Limassol will lose vast amounts of business. The Cyprus economy will decline.
And why? Because a number of old men, still living in the past, will not accept today’s reality and want many things to be the same as they were 35 years ago. Both Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots have repeatedly stated in opinion polls that they cannot live together and that a two community solution is the only way forward. Turkey is now like a cornered rat that is ready to leap and strike at the throat.
Please politicians, think about the legacy you may be condemning for young Greek Cypriots if you continue with a negative policy and think of the huge benefits that can be gained from stepping back a bit, acting more conciliatory and giving Turkey the respect it deserves.
David Brown,
Kyrenia
