AT THE time of writing, the price of crude oil reached $135 a barrel. To get some perspective, last year it was $64 a barrel. Ten years ago, a mere $12 a barrel.
In case anyone is still wondering, things are happening, fast.
Oil is absolutely fundamental to our current way of life. Those who don’t have it want it, while those who do, want more. Problem is it’s running out, quicker than people are letting on. We are currently witnessing the middle stages of a scramble which has the potential to turn very nasty. Who will get the last drops at the bottom of the barrel and at what price?
In the meantime, with increasing demand and falling supply, prices continue to soar. Shopping holidays abroad are about to become a once in a lifetime trip for Cosmo readers, strawberries won’t be eaten out of season and driving to work will be a fond memory. And that’s the rosy picture, without getting in to the more pertinent issues of environmental destruction, global inequality and food and water shortages.
Given that cheap fuel drives the economy’s main sectors: industry, tourism, trade and transport, it’s no exaggeration to say every aspect of our lives will be affected by its disappearance.
Today, rising energy prices help boost state revenues and make oil companies unfathomably rich while simultaneously thrusting a stake in the heart of the globalised economy. There is nothing wrong with making money per se, but the fact is oil companies and governments are not adequately investing this excess cash in energy alternatives or preparing on a global scale for the food, water and fuel shortages rushing down the mountain.
So far, the alternatives proposed to replace the depleting oil and gas reserves have not been very encouraging, either environmentally or for the global food crisis they are spurring on.
This raises the fundamental and interconnected issue of climate change. Whether you want to blame industrialisation, cheap fuel, Western lifestyles or little green fairies, the bottom line for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is – global warming is happening.
With a complete overhaul of our energy systems inevitable, effectively removing easy access to cheap fuel, what will we do in the near future about increasing desertification and drought? Two problems that Cyprus will have to face, according to the IPCC report on climate change.
Environment Commissioner Charalambos Theopemptou, responsible for advising the government, is considerably concerned by the global changes taking place.
“Things are very, very worrying. It’s not looking good. There are even bleaker scenarios than what we’ve heard,” he said.
“Climate change effects will get bigger and bigger if we don’t do anything about it in the next four to five years when the damage will become irreversible. Things like loss of species and advanced desertification you just can’t reverse.
“It’s very difficult, and that’s just land issues, but the effects on the sea are much worse,” he added.
Theopemptou noted that toxic rain and pollution was killing off plants in the sea that absorb roughly one third of carbon dioxide emissions. Starting from the bottom of the food chain, the depleting plants in turn will reduce the numbers of fish that eat them until half of all species in the sea disappear.
“It’s an irreversible process. Combined with the Amazon problem, it’s very alarming,” said the Environment Commissioner.
Theopemptou highlighted that Cyprus could not escape from the global changes.
“The IPCC report is absolutely clear that the region will suffer from reduced rainfall and increased temperatures. Together these two basic conclusions are very important.
“We can expect an extra 16 weeks in our summers, more drought, forest fires, no rain, more mosquitoes, diseases, loss of the trees we know in Cyprus and more palm trees,” he warned.
“I start my school presentations with pictures of Bedouins and camels and say, ‘when you grow up, you won’t be discussing which car to buy, but which camel. It’s a little extreme but it works.”
In the next few weeks, the Agriculture Ministry is due to release a report on how to combat the environmental effects of climate change on Cyprus. But Theopemptou has been calling on governments, past and present, to undertake a study on the economic effects of climate change on Cyprus.
“For example, will tourists get on a plane in these conditions, when it costs more and when they will have higher temperatures in their own countries? What will be the effect on our industries? There is no report on this yet.”
Those that have been warning of an imminent crisis have been calling for years for immediate policies on reducing carbon emissions. The proposals are well known: leave your car at home; restructure town planning to accommodate more public transport, pedestrians and cyclists; improve the energy performance of housing; invest in renewable energy sources; be sensitive to food miles, and recycle.
“We know what’s coming in terms of weather. It would not be wise to continue the way we are doing now. Our habits will change, whether we like it or not,” noted Theopemptou.
“Anything crossing water or air to get to Cyprus will become very expensive. We need to restructure society, get out of the car, change our roads, put more trees on roads. It’s not by accident that the old roads of Cyprus were full of trees for the pedestrians and animals. It is proven that more greenery changes the local climate of a city. The question is why we aren’t planting more trees?” he asked.
And what about our complete dependency on heavy fuel oil for electricity generation and other industries?
The EU has approved a government plan which set maximum emission limits for 13 industries: the EAC’s three electricity generation plants, two cement factories and eight ceramic factories. The caps must be reached by 2012.
“We are actually increasing emissions instead. There is more and more demand for electricity every year. Next year, everyone will be talking about this,” said Theopemptou.
Come next year, the EAC will have to buy carbon emission permits every year to make up for exceeding the limit. This could cost anywhere between €20m and €100m annually, depending on the carbon credit market, warned the Commissioner.
The government could also come in for a fine for failing to implement regulation on reducing CO2 emissions. “For example, rubbish dumps, animal farms release methane which is much more powerful than carbon dioxide.”
So, what about energy saving schemes and renewable energy?
“The Energy Service publicly stated that they would wait five years on solar technologies until further technological advancements were made. But that’s like me not buying a computer because the technology keeps changing. We have to start now.”
Finally, the Commissioner said contributions to the renewable energy fund, incorporated in electricity bills, would increase threefold in the near future to encourage photovoltaic energy use.
“The law should be stricter on energy performance of housing and make it compulsory for every house to have solar powered panels on the roof,” he said.
