POLITICAL analysts yesterday advised Nicosia that it stood to gain more from a flexible angle on Kosovo, 24 hours after President Tassos Papadopoulos said Cyprus would not accept a unilateral declaration of independence by the breakaway Serbian province.
Speaking after the EU summit in Brussels, Papadopoulos told newsmen that any agreement on Kosovo “must be done with the blessing of the Serbs”, though he acknowledged it still made sense to begin preparations for the EU police mission.
EU leaders declared after a one-day summit that negotiations on Kosovo’s future were exhausted, the status quo was untenable and there was a need to move towards a Kosovo settlement. They stopped short of endorsing independence.
Although Cyprus’ reservations are shared by countries such as Spain, Slovakia, the Netherlands and Romania, Nicosia’s stance is widely regarded as being the most hard-line within the 27-nation bloc.
Some EU nations prefer that Kosovo, a province of Serbia inhabited mostly by ethnic Albanians, declare independence after Serbian elections in January.
Kosovo says it will soon declare independence, whether or not there is an agreement with Serbia.
Serbia has insisted on broad autonomy for the province and a continuation of negotiations to explore possibilities to solve the status of Kosovo following the passing of the December 10 deadline of the mediation by the so-called troika – the EU, Russia and the United States.
After several rounds of talks, the two parties failed to find a solution before the time limit.
Conventional wisdom has it that Kosovo is another TRNC, a part of Serbia over which the recognised central government has no control, lost in the aftermath of a war, overwhelmingly populated by a minority ethnic group that claimed persecution at the hands of the majority.
What would that mean for Cyprus? Many feel it would underline the fundamental truth of international politics that ultimately political interest reigns supreme, that realpolitik drives international law, and not the other way round. It would underline that recognised sovereignty can be unrecognised at the stroke of a pen, if that is what the great powers want to do.
But there’s always the flipside to an argument. Commentators speaking to the Mail said these fears might be exaggerated and even misguided.
“I think Nicosia should chill out and stop worrying about Kosovo setting a precedent,” said Tim Potier, Associate Professor of International Law at Nicosia University.
“There’s a notion – flawed in my opinion – that if Cyprus had given the nod to Kosovo, the other EU governments would have turned around and said ‘aha! Now we can do the same for the TRNC.’ No, it doesn’t work like that.”
It is every nation’s prerogative to recognise another country and establish diplomatic relations with it, he added.
In this sense, Nicosia could have voiced its opposition and reservations to a Kosovo UDI, reiterating that any development there should have no bearing on Cyprus – and left it at that.
“Instead, what Cyprus has done is block a common decision by the EU Council, swimming against the tide. There’s no doubt that the United States and some EU countries will proceed with recognition [of Kosovo]. It’s a done deal. They don’t give a damn about Russian objections.
“It seems Nicosia hasn’t yet realised that, when you are a small country part of a large union, you need to adjust your policy. You can’t afford to be antagonistic all the time. There comes a time when you need to go with the flow… that concept hasn’t quite sunk in,” said Potier.
“Good foreign policy is about securing your own interests. Stop worrying about the others and worry about yourself, because no one else is going to do it for you.”
More than that, a softer attitude would have “definitely” earned Cyprus brownie points within the EU, he said.
But what are the implications of a Kosovo secession for Cyprus, if any?
“In my view, it does not set a precedent. For 30 years now, the international community has been committed to reunification of the island, and that’s not about to change, at least not in the foreseeable future. Granted, theoretically speaking foreign countries might recognise northern Cyprus any moment. But they don’t ‘need’ Kosovo to do that,” said Potier.
At any rate, the two cases differ vastly, a former diplomat added.
Kosovo maintained a significant degree of autonomy until 1989, when the Milosevic regime moved to exercise greater central control over the province. Additionally, 90 per cent of Kosovo’s populations are Albanians, the source pointed out.
“By linking the two, we are shooting ourselves in the foot. No one else is drawing parallels between Cyprus and Kosovo, so why are we bringing it up? Kosovo might set a precedent only if we keep harping on about this.
“The media here has whipped up frenzy about the dangers of Kosovo, and I think this has affected the government’s handling of the issue.”
Moreover, Cyprus had to play it smart in the diplomatic arena.
“When the game’s up, you never, never stay on our own. In the end, Serbia itself will be forced to recognise Kosovo, and the Russians will fall in line as well. So our alliance with Russia now may have its uses, but that can only take you so far.”
