SUNDAY’S parliamentary election, in which voters clearly showed their confidence in President Tassos Papadopoulos, is not likely to affect his handling of the Cyprus issue, analysts and diplomats said yesterday.
Papadopoulos’ party DIKO gained around three per cent in the election, while coalition partner AKEL and opposition DISY both saw small reductions in their voter base. Socialist EDEK also gained, as did the smaller European Party.
The slight shift to DIKO is widely seen as a sign of support for Papadopoulos’ call for a rejection of the failed Annan plan and for his tough stance on Turkey within the EU.
When asked by a Turkish Cypriot reporter on Sunday whether there would be any changes following the elections, Papadopoulos said his government’s policy was well known. “I don’t see any reason for any dramatic change,” he added.
Diplomats and analysts said yesterday it was clear that the elections had strengthened Papadopoulos’ power base and was an endorsement of his policy on the Cyprus problem.
“I don’t think anyone expected anything else,” one diplomat told the Cyprus Mail.
The diplomat said that from the international community’s perspective one of the important things about the election was that it was over and any barrier that they might have presented to progress on the UN path was removed “so we can move forward”.
“He (Papadopoulos) has the opportunity to move rapidly towards negotiations if he chooses to do so. He is in a very good position to sell a Cyprus settlement to the people. We know that Papadopoulos is the man we need to work with. He represents Greek Cypriot opinion,” the diplomat added.
“I don’t think this will result in a more flexible Papadopoulos,” a second western diplomat told Reuters. “If anything it will steel him, and reinforce his convictions to yield as little as possible, whether that be in the context of the EU-Turkey process or the Cyprus talks.”
Analysts expressed similar sentiments. “Everything hinges on how well he will use the victory,” said James Ker-Lindsay. “Either he can take it as an endorsement of his policies and continue to take a hard-line stance, or he can use it as an opportunity that he has the endorsement of the people to take a different policy direction if he wants to.”
Ker-Lindsay said that taking a tough stance on Turkey was domestically popular, but added that there was a difference between being a politician and a statesman. “Anyone can be a politician and play to the people,” he said. “This stance wins votes but if he really wants a settlement he will need a different type of policy.”
Hubert Faustmann, a professor at Intercollege, said the way the campaign was conducted made it “a referendum after a referendum”.
“I don’t think the election changes much, but it is a sign of public approval and it reinforces Papadopoulos’ position that he represents the majority of Greek Cypriots,” said Faustmann.
He said it appeared AKEL was being punished for its ambivalent policies during the referendum, while DIKO reaped the support for Papadopoulos.
“We have a vindication of Papadopoulos’ policies. And his policy is to overcome the UN plan and to squeeze concessions out of Turkey on its path to EU accession,” he said.
The Turkish Cypriot side was also unimpressed. Turkish Cypriot leader, Mehmet Ali Talat, commenting on the results, said that during the election campaign Papadopoulos had made a call for the strengthening of those powers that voted ‘no’ at the referendum.
Commenting on AKEL’s loss of voters, Talat said this was as a result of the party’s co-operation with Papadopoulos. Talat then quoted a Turkish proverb: “Those who sleep with a blind person wake up cross-eyed.”
“These results, which I respect, do not have the characteristic of contributing to the peace and solution process in the coming period… The main protectors of the policies which are not modern and pro-peace are strengthened.”
