WITH many Turkish Cypriots still reeling in shock over the Greek Cypriot rejection of the Annan plan last April, many believe a veto of Turkey’s accession negotiations by the Cyprus government could put already strained relations between the two communities under further threat.
Such a move would constitute a “second historical mistake” in one year, according to Cenk Mutluyaka, chief editor at the pro-solution daily YeniDuzen.
Most Turkish Cypriots believe they should have joined the EU in May, along with the Greek Cypriot south. But due to the Greek Cypriots’ overwhelming rejection of the Annan plan in a referendum in April the community remained outside the bloc pending an eventual solution to the island’s division.
Many in the north now believe the only way to see their dream of EU membership transpire is through improved relations between the EU and their motherland Turkey – the idea being that the closer Turkey gets to the bloc, the closer they too will get.
As in April, Turkish Cypriots again see their fate in the hands of the Greek Cypriots: if they say ‘no’ to Turkish accession negotiations, the EU dream slips further from their grasp.
“Even if it is not seen as a blow to Turkish Cypriots, it will be seen as a blow against a solution to the Cyprus problem,” Turkish Cypriot ‘prime minister’ Mehmet Ali Talat told the Cyprus Mail yesterday. He added, however, that there was a danger that Turkish Cypriots’ “resentment” towards the Greek Cypriots could grow if the veto card was played.
“And that will not help in bringing the two communities closer together,” he said.
But Talat’s fears are not just about the resentment a veto might instil in Turkish Cypriots hungry for a solution.
“If Turkey is vetoed by Cyprus, Turkey could lose its incentive to seek a solution,” he said.
These fears are shared by Turkish Cypriot political analyst Mete Hatay, who told the Mail: “They [Turkish Cypriots] know that if Turkey stays outside the EU, it will harden its stance on Cyprus. If the Greek Cypriots take a maximalist approach, they will get a maximalist approach from Turkey.”
In short, a veto will strengthen the long-term division of the island.
There is also a danger that a Greek Cypriot veto will send ripples through Turkey’s political establishment that could upset the country’s long-term European project and lead to a resurgence of hardliners opposed to any concession whatsoever on Cyprus.
“A veto will lead to a crisis in Turkey, the effects of which will also be felt in Cyprus,” Hatay adds.
Remaining confident that the Greek Cypriot government would resist the temptation to veto the country it sees as an occupying power on its soil Turkish Cypriot Chamber of Commerce head Ali Erel told the Mail: “Our people think they won’t do it, but we have been wrong before. We thought they would vote ‘yes’ to the Annan plan, but they didn’t.
If we are surprised again and they veto Turkey, then the cooling of relations that followed the referendum will become more prevalent. It will create a crisis of trust that will do nothing to help unite the island.”
