AS THE referendum hubbub of the weekend settles down, it’s time for a detached look at the actual voting on Saturday, where there was the largest turnout in recent history.
And although for most the outcome of the referendum was a foregone conclusion, it’s still useful to analyze what went on in people’s minds as they cast their vote in the ballot box.
The result of the vote on the Greek side mirrored by and large the trend in a series of polls in the weeks before. On Saturday, 75.83 per cent said ‘no’, 24.17 said ‘yes’. Surveys had previously recorded a ‘no’ vote ranging from 65 to 70 per cent, while supporters of the Annan plan were estimated at 20 to 25 per cent.
What happened is that while the ‘yes’ camp remained consistent, the majority of undecided voters eventually voted against the UN blueprint, falling in line with the national trend. This represented one of the few surprises in the whole affair; before the referendum, political analysts suggested that the undecided were in fact “closet ‘yes’ supporters” reluctant openly to express their opinions in a predominantly hostile public mood.
“It turned out that was an incorrect analysis,” said poll expert Pambos Papageorgiou of Cyprus College. “In fact, the so-called wavering voters were genuinely undecided… and at the end of the day fell in line with the national trend of opposition to the plan.” That explains why the ‘no’ vote recorded in opinion polls gained a small boost on referendum day.
“I was frankly surprised, since judging from the momentum building up for the ‘yes’ vote I expected this to maybe reach 30 per cent on Saturday,” added Papageorgiou.
Moreover, this time around people were not swayed by their parties’ stance on the issue. Exit polls conducted outside polling stations strongly suggested that the public fell in line more with the national trend against the plan rather than with the position adopted by each political party.
As far as numbers go, the most striking example was with DISY supporters; roughly two-thirds voted ‘no’, in defiance of the party’s official line.
But for Papageorgiou, the most “stunning” result came from sympathisers of the United Democrats, headed by former president George Vassiliou. The party has over the years adopted a highly consistent strategy on the Cyprus issue; nevertheless, exit polls showed around 40 per cent of party supporters had their own ideas about the referendum and voted ‘no’.
Looking at a geographical breakdown of the vote, the Famagusta district was the most pro ‘yes’ with 37.06 per cent, followed by Nicosia with 26.42 per cent. Conversely, residents of the Paphos district were the staunchest opponents of the plan with 84.01 per cent, well over the national average. In Limassol, the ‘no’ vote received 79.35 per cent. Lastly, Larnaca was the most conformist, turning out 75.43 per cent against, almost dead-on the nationwide result.
Political commentators explained the higher support for the plan among Famagusta district dwellers was because the town of Varosha would be returned as part of the settlement. In fact, the village of Dherynia was the only place where the ‘yes’ vote obtained a majority: 57.65 per cent. Many of the people currently living in Dherynia are displaced persons from 1974, and would have had their lands returned within 104 days.
Famagusta’s results imply that personal interest was a major incentive (or disincentive) on how to vote. The theory is lent weight by the figures recorded in the Paphos district. The argument goes, Paphos residents felt that the consequences of a solution might have jeopardised the economic boom they have enjoyed in the last few years.
Another explanation for the higher-than-average ‘no’ vote is that the DIKO and EDEK parties are especially strong in the district.
And in stark contrast to Famagusta, Paphos produced the only polling station on the island where a 100 per cent result was registered. All 57 voters in the village of Kritou-Marottou voted against the plan. On Sunday, CyBC ran a story on the village discovering that all of its residents were relatives.
