FEW people are likely to be surprised at the outcome of yesterday’s referendum.
So much for certainties. The big question today today is ‘What now for Cyprus?”. Is this the end of the Cyprus problem or will President Tassos Papadopoulos’ “better solution” materialise? Will Cyprus be ostracised in Europe for “cheating” its way in? Will the breakaway Turkish Cypriot regime be recognised?
The answer to all the above is probably ‘no’, at least in the short term, and in the case of a better solution, it is a “resounding no”.
What is a fact is that the Greek Cypriots will be in the doghouse for some time to come, and what should have been a celebration of EU entry on Saturday will probably end up as a day of veiled political recriminations accompanied by plaudits for the Turkish Cypriots.
“Everyone agrees it’s unfair for Turkish Cypriots to be punished,” said one European diplomat. “The status quo cannot continue. It is built on Greek Cypriots being on the high moral ground. That’s gone now. They are going to find that everything has changed, that they can no longer expect to get support for their various positions at international fora. As for this idea that the plan is going to change… on what is it based, and why should the Turkish side agree to changes at this stage?
“People need to sit back and consider how they got themselves into this position… that all their friends in the international community are no longer their friends.”
And the diplomat added that the UN would simply pack up shop and not return until they were convinced people were genuinely ready for a deal.
“While it’s a shame that many Greek Cypriots voted ‘no’ because the naysayers played on their very real security fears, the issue was cynically manipulated for maximum effect.
“The entire security package is ensconced in the Annan plan with the added benefit of EU entry. As Enlargement Commissioner Gunther Verheugen said, the hype surrounding AKEL and its demands for guarantees from the UN Security Council was just a sham.
“Who is going to attack an EU member state?” he said.
In any case, no amount of outside assurances and UN resolutions, considering the number issued on Cyprus and never enforced against Turkey, were ever going to convince Greek Cypriots that they should feel secure under the plan. To be really effective, the reassurances can only come from their own government, the one that didn’t want a Security Council resolution in case they might have to welcome it.
“It’s understandable that Greek Cypriots don’t trust Turkey. You can’t deny that Turkish policy changed quickly in a matter of months and Greek Cypriots are being asked to believe that this is permanent. Unless their leaders reassure them because of the EU, they are not going to come to this conclusion on their own,” said the diplomat.
“By asking Turkey to take away its right to intervene, which under the plan is not unilateral, it means asking them to admit that the invasion was wrong and they are never going to admit that. It’s just never going to happen. The words are only there for political imperative for Turkey.”
Analyst James Ker-Lindsay thinks Greek Cypriots might be more inclined to rethink their positions from the security blanket of EU membership. “In many, ways people would like to have more time to reflect on this to have a proper debate without the pressure,” he said.
Greek Cypriots will also realise in the coming months, when Cyprus feels the heat from the EU, that after 30 years, the international community really means business this time around, and that this was not just another process that would lead nowhere.
“I feel a lot of people voted no because they feel it’s undue pressure before accession. May 1 is not going to lead to major changes in the plan and I think people might just need to see this for themselves,” said Ker-Lindsay.
Whether or not there is hope for a settlement and a new referendum down the line is now entirely up to the Greek Cypriots.
“Political will would be a help but they have to understand that there would have been a fundamental shift in opinion and evidence that people are ready to accept the plan,” said the diplomat. “And those who really want a solution need to set about getting rid of a lot of the myths floating around.”
Irish referendum expert Quentin Oliver believes there is hope for a second referendum.
“This referendum was a test of mood and atmosphere and imperatives,” he said.
“If one of the key issues was security, and from what I saw there were genuine concerns of security on both sides, then the issue of security will remain a concern and therefore the political leaders and international bodies will have to make judgments. How can security be best assured?”
But he said the initiative for a second referendum request would have to come from the leadership. “Who knows what the fallout from this will be? Mood change can happen very fast in the streets,” he said referring to the change on the Turkish Cypriot side, which last year turned against Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash for the first time.
“That was people power. I was excited. It was a signal that responsible political leaders in the Turkish north clearly saw. In the south this may yet happen,” he said.
Commenting on how Turkish Cypriots were likely to view yesterday’s result, Oliver said they would feel disappointment and anger at being denied economic improvements.
“It will be like grief after a death. People will go through a phase of denial and then of hurt but then they will become more reflective and more mature and they will begin to look for positive ways to improve their situation,” he said.
Ker-Lindsay also believes there is hope for an agreement and a second referendum as long as it happens before December when Turkey is to obtain a date for accession negotiations. “December is the key date and really it has always been the key date,” he said, adding this was the only chance left for the Greek Cypriots. He said that because Turkey played the political game this time around they might very well obtain a date in any case. “My main concern is not if there is hope before December, it’s the disappearance of hope after December. After that it’s game over,” he said.
The dilemma now is how to persuade Papadopoulos to ask for a second referendum without opening negotiations on a plan he opposes, which the Turkish Cypriots have approved; and which the UN says cannot be changed.
In the meantime both sides are going to have to try and build confidence if there is to be any hope of a settlement.
“There are very genuine concerns about the way in which Ankara will abide by its obligations,” said Ker-Lindsay. “But the Greek Cypriots should also appreciate that the Turkish Cypriots have severe problems of trust as well. Confidence building measures will be a very important step to take in the coming months and see where we can go from there.”
Oliver agreed. “The type of graffiti I’ve seen is not helpful and that sort of racism and ethnic hatred and xenophobia must be stamped out. That is not the Europe I want to belong to and I believe that is not the Europe that most people on this island want to belong to,” he said.
“I was in Israel recently, which is an object lesson in how not to run a peace process. The fear and tension and distrust is palpable. Cyprus must not move in that direction. Cyprus must move towards progress in Europe and not down the violent route of hatred and division and separation.”
