Pensioners could outstrip working population by 2050

STATISTICS released yesterday suggested a growing risk that pensioners could soon outnumber younger, working people, sparking a major crisis in the Social Insurance Department.

According to the figures, by 2028, 23.1 per cent of the population will be over 60, in comparison to 15.7 per cent in 1998. It is expected that 17.6 per cent will be over 65 compared to 11 per cent in 1998.

If the figures bear out, the Social Insurance Department fears that the number of pensioners will surpass the number of workers and will bleed their fund dry.

While in 1998 pensioners made up 27.7 per cent of the population, by 2050 they are expected to reach 63 per cent. This means that while in 1998 there were 3.7 contributors for every pensioner collecting social insurance, in 2050 this will be reduced to 1.59 contributors per pensioner.

In reaction, the government is understood to be considering drastic measures to ensure the Social Insurance system survives. This could be done by increasing the contribution of every worker in stages to reach 28 per cent, compared to the 16.6 per cent it is today.
With the situation as it stands, the Social Insurance Department can only survive until 2020.

The Social Insurance Department have said that if falling birth rates continue, they will have no choice but to take more money from people’s salaries. However, this will then have a knock-on effect on the general economy, as well as lower individual standards of living.

Other ideas mooted are to raise the retirement age, or change the way pensions are calculated.

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