RAUF DENKTASH may have played his last card when he announced on Wednesday that he would not be attending the four-party conference to be held in Switzerland next week. Yet the news could not have come as a big surprise as diplomats had been speculating, for several weeks, that Denktash would be left with no option but to bow out before the completion of the procedure he reluctantly, agreed to last month in New York.
He has not bowed out yet as he remained ‘president’ and negotiator, but this could be seen as a first step. For Denktash to stay away from the most critical negotiations in Cyprus’ history, on the grounds that he would be represented at the four-party conference by his ‘government’ is tantamount to throwing in the towel. He had alluded to the possibility of quitting as negotiator in interviews over the last few weeks, suggesting that he would thus be better able to campaign for a ‘no-vote’.
It is probable that his decision was also determined by the realisation that he would be sidelined in Switzerland, unable to call the shots or lead the procedure to deadlock as he has done in the past. The agreed procedure is so rigid it allows no room for destructive manoeuvres or opportunity for filibustering. Considering that his two key demands – separate sovereignty and permanent derogations from the EU acquis – are very unlikely to be accepted he sees no reason of attending the next phase of the talks.
According to former president Glafcos Clerides, Denktash’s move is primarily aimed at putting pressure on the Turkish government to adopt a more hard-line stance at the four-party conference. He also suggested that Denktash’s decision might not be irrevocable and could change if he received the assurances he was looking for from Ankara, as regards the Turkish side’s stance in Lucerne.
He cited the refusal of Greece’s prime minister to participate as proof that the conference would not yield results. Yet 24 hours after he said this, it was announced that the prime ministers of Greece and Turkey would be taking part in the four-party conference. With Costas Karamanlis and Tayyip Erdogan in Switzerland he cannot possibly claim that the conference would lead nowhere and that no decisions would be taken. Nor could the Turkish Cypriot delegation be able to use his absence as a stalling tactic – seeking time to consult him before agreeing to anything – when Erdogan will be present.
Could he have been hoping that his absence would have led President Papadopoulos to stay away from the conference as well in which case the whole procedure would have been completely discredited in the eyes of the people? This is not a possibility after the announcement that Greece and Turkey would be represented at prime ministerial level.
And as Sir Kieran Prendergast said on his departure from Cyprus yesterday, the peace procedure would continue irrespective of whether Denktash would be participating or not. The Turkish Cypriot leader may still go to Lucerne, but his power to influence developments has been drastically restricted and he knows it.
