FOR the past 30 years, the Greek Cypriot side has never had to stick its neck out when it came being straight about a Cyprus solution. As long as Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash kept insisting on two separate states it never had to.
But the tide may be turning, and one day soon President Tassos Papadopoulos and his government may have to lay their final cards on the table.
Turkey appears to be shifting its intransigent stance, something Denktash will bow to if necessary, but the government remains unconvinced and its lack of enthusiasm is leaving a lot to be desired, according to observers.
If Ankara comes up with a solution even remotely resembling the Annan plan – something it says it is working on – and if the US, the EU or UN Secretary-general Kofi Annan feel it might reasonably be discussed, the goal posts will move and the Greek Cypriot side will come under enormous pressure to fall into line.
“It’s obvious they do run the risk of Turkey coming up with something positive and close to the Annan plan, and then the spotlight will fall on them,” said one diplomatic source.
“Certainly some of the statements coming out are not positive, and it’s fairly clear the Secretary-general feels his conditions are not being met by the Greek Cypriot side either.”
The source said the only way the Greek Cypriot side would get off the hook would be if the Ankara proposals were “way off the Annan plan”.
“They simply won’t be able to because the spotlight for the first time is going to fall on them,” he added. “And if the time does come, they won’t have a lot of choice, both because of commitments made in the past and because the international community is not going to sit back and accept a rejectionist stance to the whole thing.
“Everybody is pushing for them to meet the Secretary-general’s conditions and everyone is pushing hard for that.”
Former Defence Minister Socratis Hasikos made his sentiments clear earlier in the week after President Tassos Papadopoulos’ comments on Annan’s latest letter. “He doesn’t want a solution. This is the problem with him. This is what I think,” said Hasikos. “It’s all a game. (Former President) Mr Clerides played the game very, very well, but now I think the new government believes that now we are in Europe and we achieved accession there is no rush to sit down and negotiate.”
The former minister said he did not even see the point of Papadopoulos writing to Annan, since the Secretary-general had clearly laid out his position last year on the preconditions for the resumption of talks: political will from both sides and a commitment to a referendum.
Former Attorney-general Alecos Markides, who was a senior adviser to Clerides on the talks, agreed. “(Foreign Minister) George Iacovou stated quite clearly that the government expected this particular answer from the Secretary-general. If they expected such an answer and since they don’t like the answer, then why did they provoke the answer by sending the letter?” he wondered.
He said the government had to be careful how it handled things, adding that when the previous government had gone to the talks, it had been very positive, while the Turkish side was negative until the very end.
“This resulted in persuading all concerned that the Greek Cypriot side wanted a solution in good faith and of course that played a very important role in respect of the accession of Cyprus to the EU,” he said.
“And this is the area where I criticise the government. I have been saying to them since June that we are making statements unnecessarily, mainly for reasons of internal policy, and these statements are transmitting a message of negativity. At the end of day we will have to pay the price for such impressions, independent of the fact that we do want a solution.”
Markides said the government appeared to be underestimating Annan, who would not compromise on his preconditions for the resumption of talks.
He said Annan believed the two sides would never find a solution if left to negotiate freely with an unlimited amount of time. The only way the Secretary-general feels the problem can be solved is on the basis of discussing his plan within a fixed timeframe.
“Do the people who govern Cyprus realise that? Or do they think the Secretary-general may be persuaded to change his mind? Now if they have realised the real attitude of the Secretary-general, they have to explain to the people that unless his terms are accepted, there will be no resumption of talks and no solution to the Cyprus problem.”
Markides did say, however, that he did not believe the Turkish side was really making a real shift in its policy on Cyprus.
“There are statements that may be interpreted that way but deep down Turkish policy so far remains the same. Unless Turkey shows on the table or by real acts that the policy is a new one, we have to assume that the policy remains as it was,” he said.
This was the view of Government Spokesman Kypros Chrysostomides, who defended the President’s position and disagreed that a negative impression was being created.
“On the contrary, we keep repeating our position that we are ready to start negotiations on the basis of the Annan plan in order to achieve a agreement and final solution before the first of May 2004,” he told the Sunday Mail.
He said the Turkish side and Denktash may be talking about changing their stance, but there was no evidence to back this up.
“They are only saying that they would like to think of negotiating on the basis of the Annan plan. Has he written to the Secretary-general or said so officially? We say, yes, these are words, but no concrete evidence of change of heart,” he said.
“They’ve been playing a game for 30 years, one day saying this and the other saying that. Why should we believe them?”
That might be the case, but, like Markides and Hasikos, analysts agree that the government does not appear to be handling developments well and is giving out the wrong impression, even if it’s inadvertently.
Observer Christos Christoforou said: “ This is bad politics. You can say many things in many different ways.”
Papadopoulos could have held his tongue on the Annan letter issue “at least for tactical reasons”, he added.
“Papadopoulos has always displayed a negative attitude on many things. I wonder if he has not updated his vision of the world, because we are not in the 60s, 70s or 80s…we are in the 21st century. We should have a broader view of things.”
Christoforou was even more amazed by the stance of government coalition partners, AKEL, the party that had always been the leading light in rapprochement.
“It has supported a solution even during the right-wing government. There is a rumour going around that they don’t want a solution because they are in power and they want to continue this way,” he said. “We are going back to a cold war and the sixties rhetoric.”
Analyst Sofronis Sofroniou was also surprised with AKEL’s position. “Most people want a solution, but somehow Papadopoulos and AKEL are not sufficiently convincing,” he said. “Somehow the governing circles are divided because AKEL has always been much more amenable to a solution but they are not showing it these days. It seems they are afraid to take decisions or oppose Papadopoulos.”
One analyst, who wished to remain anonymous, said that, even if Turkey’s latest statements were not sincere, Ankara might have decided it no longer wanted to be viewed as the obstructing force.
“If the Greek Cypriots are not careful, this will put them in a bad position,” said the analyst. “Ever since this government came to power, the rhetoric and the language is from a different era. This is not the language of a country functioning
within the new Europe, and it’s certainly not going to be winning Cyprus any friends,” he said.
“What we need is a government that tries to offer an olive branch and occasionally try to look for positive motives coming out of Turkey instead of beating things down the whole time. We could say the history of Turkish diplomacy has been very, very negative and has been aggressive, but even if it’s only for a PR stunt, try to look more positive.”
The analyst said some circles believed the Greek Cypriot side would be better off without a solution while others felt it would be better to hold out until after EU entry in the hope of getting a better deal.
“I think this is probably what’s more likely to be behind the negativity, but they are hoping for a lot, because Cyprus within the EU will come under a lot of pressure and there are all sorts of ways for the big states to lean on Cyprus,” he said.
“We are seeing a lot of negative reaction. All these comments from AKEL about the Americans putting unbearable pressure – this is from a different era. The Greek Cypriot side has got to be really careful about this. If they go on like this, it will do Cyprus a lot of damage.”
