By George Psyllides
THESE presidential elections will certainly go down in history — if not the last in the Republic of Cyprus as we know it – then certainly as the elections where policy differences between the two frontrunners were almost non-existent.
Today’s vote has been labelled as a referendum on whether people want a solution or not.
But referenda usually carry options. In this case, the two main candidates both say they want a solution based on the UN plan.
The frontrunners expected to go through to a runoff in a week’s time are incumbent President Glafcos Clerides and DIKO chief Tassos Papadopoulos, who promises to bring change to the island if elected – to “get rid of the current administration,” as he and his backers AKEL constantly repeat.
The focal point of the election campaign has — as always – been the Cyprus problem, though this time there is a difference, in that it is the first time in 30 years the island has actually been so close to settling its long-standing political problem, following the submission of a United Nations plan for a solution last November.
The two men go to the polls with virtually no difference in their views concerning the plan — at least in theory: both have accepted it as a basis for negotiation and both have pledged to try and change it to be more favourable to the Greek Cypriot side.
Everyone, however, has occasionally admitted that there is little leeway for changes to the plan.
Yet Papadopoulos’ current public stance is a U-turn from the man who initially rejected the blueprint in November, just after it was submitted.
As was reported in AKEL’s mouthpiece Haravghi: “Mr Papadopoulos stressed that, as the Annan plan is today, it is unacceptable and should be rejected without a second thought.”
Papadopoulos has always carried the hardliner tag, and his current change of heart is almost certainly linked to his main backers at AKEL, who initially had a hard time ‘selling’ the DIKO chief to a large number of their supporters.
And the makeover has worked miracles, with Papadopoulos consistently topping the polls with a comfortable lead.
His camp is now working at getting him elected from today, or at least gaining a lead so strong it would be impossible to reverse in a runoff.
Papadopoulos is supported by three parties apart from his own: AKEL, KISOS, and the Greens. If you add up the votes the four parties traditionally muster, Papadopoulos should in theory sweep home with about 58 per cent of the vote. But opinion polls show him closer to 48 per cent, with Clerides – backed by DISY — trailing at 36 per cent, Attorney-general Alecos Markides – running as an independent – gaining around 10 per cent, and New Horizons leader Nicos Koutsou at around three per cent.
Clerides had always accepted the plan as a basis for negotiation. He argues the intensive efforts by the international community to solve the issue once and for all, provided the impetus for him to seek re-election for the third time.
Clerides said critical developments were imminent and he considered it his duty to finish the job he had begun.
He said it was only right to ask for the people’s mandate in order to have the authority to negotiate the plan.
The President – who turns 84 this year – has that if elected he would only stay in power for a maximum16 months, stepping down as soon as the reunified island’s full membership in the EU is signed and sealed.
“Not a day longer,” he said.
But Clerides has a poor record in keeping his pledges and people have grown weary of empty words. In 1993, he insisted he only wanted one term in office but a few months before the end of his mandate decided to seek re-election because of “imminent developments” in the Cyprus problem.
He succeeded in getting re-elected after promising to deploy the notorious S-300 missile system, which the taxpayers had already paid for. The system ended up in Crete and around $300 million went down the drain.
This time, the existence of developments gradually became the main argument of the campaign, with opposition parties – AKEL, DIKO and KISOS — playing down Clerides’ argument in an effort to neutralise his candidacy and prove their claim that Clerides, and his main backer DISY, were only interested in remaining in power.
“Developments” in the Cyprus problem have become anathema to the opposition and any mention of anything described as a development is quickly and brutally shot down.
This frenzied attempt to wipe out anything branded ‘a development’ has led the opposition to accuse the UN, and more specifically its special envoy Alvaro de Soto, of meddling in Clerides’ favour.
When Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash said he only wanted to negotiate the Cyprus problem with Clerides, the opposition again reacted angrily.
What they failed to see was that Denktash was probably trying to hurt Clerides, whose willingness to negotiate had landed him in a tight corner.
But the crudest attempt to quash any talk about developments came from AKEL leader and House president Demetris Christofias, who this week censured a CyBC journalist on air because, according to him, she was not doing her job properly.
The reporter was interviewing Foreign Minister Yiannakis Cassoulides concerning developments in the Cyprus problem.
Is this the new face of government envisaged by AKEL and Papadopoulos?
To be fair to Clerides, this is probably the only time when talk of “imminent developments” has actually been justified.
Tomorrow, Greece and Turkey will kick off a round of meetings to discuss security issues connected to a potential agreement in Cyprus.
It was also announced this week that UN Secretary-general Kofi Annan would be visiting Athens, Ankara and possibly Nicosia, at the end of February.
And there are persistent rumours that the UN is about to submit a third revised version of its plan – this time in the form of an ultimatum.
Normally, the current situation should have given Clerides the edge over Papadopoulos.
Clerides’ term ends on February 28, the day the UN has set as a deadline for an initial agreement to be struck on the Cyprus problem. Indeed, Clerides has nothing to lose in signing an agreement that effectively spells the end of the presidency and ushers in a new system. Would, Papadopoulos – at last at the pinnacle of his career – be so keen to sign himself into oblivion?
But all the polls indicate it is Papadopoulos who is in the lead.
One reason could be Clerides’ decision not to run an election campaign. This suited the opposition just fine, and in the last two weeks the President’s camp has apparently realised the old adage that ‘out of sight is out of mind’ and is working hard to put Clerides back in the public eye.
This might explain Clerides’ startling decline from the overwhelming popularity he enjoyed after his triumphant return from the EU summit in Copenhagen in December, where he succeeded in winning an invitation to join the bloc without a solution.
In the past two weeks, Clerides has laid more foundation stones and cut more ribbons than he has done in the past five years put together.
He even granted interviews to all television stations, though he refused to appear in a debate with his opponents.
This position was also taken up by Papadopoulos, who, seeing his ratings were climbing fast, refused to appear in debates with Markides, who repeatedly accused Papadopoulos of running scared.
Markides has also pledged to negotiate a solution on the basis of the UN plan if elected.
His main difference with Clerides, whom he advises on the Cyprus problem, is that he believes the new president should not only sign the agreement for a solution but al
so see it through its critical transitional period, and not abandon ship before the ink has dried.
Markides is seen as an outsider, though polls give him some kind
of chance if he gets through to the second round.
His candidacy, however, has failed to gain momentum, even though seven DISY deputies defected to his camp.
Markides has apparently failed to offer a real alternative to Clerides, apart from being younger; or perhaps many of his potential supporters from the DISY camp simply view him as disloyal.
The fourth candidate who could play a pivotal role in a second round is Koutsou, who has very different views on the UN plan.
Koutsou, admittedly the most consistent of the candidates, has rejected the plan because its provisions violate human rights and are not in line with the European acquis communitaire.
Six other candidates are also standing in the elections.
They come from all walks of life and their views vary, though at times they come through as more genuine than the professional politicians.
The most colourful is Costas Kyriacou, alias Outopos, who promises new cities and free sex for all.
But what has been virtually absent from the campaign is any real discussion concerning the candidates’ domestic programmes.
Clerides has not got one, saying openly that he is only seeking re-election to deal with the Cyprus problem. If he wins, he is expected to leave internal administration to his ministers.
He followed the same policy in the past five years and everyone admits the internal administration has been a mess.
It would be unfair to put the blame solely on Clerides for the shambles during his first term, as several ministers then belonged to DIKO – the same party that now accuses Clerides of presiding over 10 years of chaos.
The only domestic issues that were touched upon were refugees and the stock market (CSE). And even then it was just a two-day exchange, marked by its heavy populism and nothing else.
Clerides re-tabled the issue of granting refugees ownership titles for the houses they have lived in since 1974. He was immediately attacked by the opposition who accused him of using election ploys to win votes, only for Papadopoulos to turn round and say he agreed with the plan.
Clerides had started to hand out titles around four years ago but was blocked by AKEL and DIKO who have a majority in the House.
The matter remained dormant until a couple of weeks ago, and although Clerides’ decision to bring it up now is highly questionable, so is Papadopoulos’ turnaround when it was his party and AKEL, who blocked it in the first place.
Another point of debate was the candidates’ sudden willingness to help the debt-stricken small investors of the CSE, who are being hounded by the banks to pay off loans they took out four years ago to buy shares.
Until now, no one had taken any notice of small investors, who lost millions by investing in ‘bubbles’.
But suddenly Papadopoulos, who in the past maintained that freezing the investor loans would be unconstitutional, came up with a proposal to do just that. The issue quickly turned into a shouting match, with the government claiming it had had the idea first.
No one, however, bothered to tell the people that the banks were not keen on the idea, and that the IMF had damned such an unorthodox move.
So what are the people voting for?
They could vote for Papadopoulos and “change” as his backers claim. But what change can a 1960s politician bring – a man who was a minister in the infant days of the 1960 Republic?
On the other hand, octogenarian Clerides offers commitment to a solution, which if it comes about will make domestic issues irrelevant while the overhaul sinks in.
Markides is offering consistency and continuation, but although he has support from various ideological groups, he needs to tap into the DISY voters if he wants to have a chance of getting through to the second round, something he has apparently failed to do so far.
Koutsou is the most consistent, having always opposed an Annan-type solution, but his low percentage – around three per cent – shows people do not share his views, or at least have written off his chances of success.
Koutsou’s tiny share in the polls suggests the overwhelming majority of Cypriots want a settlement based on the UN plan.
All candidates claim they can deliver this and this is what voters are being called to decide today.
With Markides seemingly out of the running, it is a choice between Clerides and his track record in the talks, and the new convert to a settlement, Papadopoulos, who has pledged he will seek a solution.
Opinion polls have been showing he has convinced people that he has radically changed his views, but only today’s ballot can confirm this.
Then again an article in the SundayTimes in the 1960s could prove prophetic. It carried a picture of three aspiring young politicians who were described as President Makarios’ successors.
The two, the late Spyros Kyprianou and Clerides, have become presidents. The third was Papadopoulos.
The Cyprus Mail is the only English-language daily newspaper published in Cyprus. It was established in 1945 and today, with its popular and widely-read website, the Cyprus Mail is among the most trusted news sites in Cyprus. The newspaper is not affiliated with any political parties and has always striven to maintain its independence. Over the past 70-plus years, the Cyprus Mail, with a small dedicated team, has covered momentous events in Cyprus’ modern history, chronicling the last gasps of British colonial rule, Cyprus’ truncated independence, the coup and Turkish invasion, and the decades of negotiations to stitch the divided island back together, plus a myriad of scandals, murders, and human interests stories that capture the island and its -people. Observers describe it as politically conservative.
