By Jean Christou
THE U.S.-LED global war on terrorism is likely to benefit the Cyprus problem in the medium and long term as attention turns to solving regional conflicts, political analysts say.
In the immediate aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, fears mounted that the Cyprus issue would be placed on the back-burner.
President Glafcos Clerides was flying to New York on the day of the tragedy to meet United Nations Secretary-general Kofi Annan to discuss the possible resumption of the stalled UN-led talks, even though Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash had refused to go.
Analysts say that although the short-term scenario indicates the Cyprus problem has been shelved, it is a temporary lull which will lead to a greater impetus as a new world order emerges.
“It may be positive in the sense that everyone realises that local problems have to be addressed and shouldn’t be left alone to fester,” said analyst Sofronis Sofroniou. He said any statements to the contrary were short- sighted. He also said that Russia’s warmer relations with the US would be positive for Cyprus and could lead to indirect pressure on Turkey.
Ruling DISY party international relations officer Manthos Mavrommatis said a clear picture wouldn’t emerge until the situation around Afghanistan is sorted out.
“In the medium term I believe that the world and the US and its allies will realise that dealing with small regional problems like the Cyprus problem will help them concentrate on the big issue of fighting terrorism and greatly increase stability in the eastern Mediterranean,” he said. “The scenery in the whole area may change in the medium term.”
Mavrommatis also believes that the new American-Russian relationship will diminish Turkey’s importance in the region. “If the US can use bases in the central Asian republics under Russia’s guidance, Turkey becomes much less important that it was during the Gulf War.”
But communist AKEL believes that the international community will still baulk at putting pressure on Turkey.
“Even before, the international community was not eager to tell Turkey its responsibilities concerning the Cyprus issue and now we see the same thing again. The Security Council has limited itself to note Denktash’s refusal to go to the talks, so we simply have a mere reprimand of the Turkish side for its stance and not a decisive reaction which would aim at putting Ankara and Denktash in line with UN resolutions,” said AKEL Central Committee member Yiannakis Kolocassides. ” Under no circumstance must the new developments take us off the track,” he said.
Political analyst Dr Andreas Theophanous of Intercollege said that after what happened on September 11 the world was a different place and that he had no doubt regional problems would be addressed, including Cyprus.
“But great powers do not do things out of altruism,” he said. “They do things to promote their long-term interests. In order for the US to sustain its long-term interests, and also the other powers, the international endeavour will move into a situation of adopting a set of minimum standards and principles. This is a positive development.”
Diplomatic sources were also reassuring. “It’s understandable that in a small island like this people will instantly worry what the effects of an international problem on them is, but in this case I don’t think their fears are justified,” said one diplomat.
“The key point is that what happened before (the attack on the US) was Mr Denktash’s refusal to attend the talks and that hasn’t changed at the moment and the reason why it’s a really bad idea for the Turks to let that continue. Cyprus joining the EU in December next year hasn’t changed and that pressure is continuing. I think everyone is making it very clear to the Turks that they can’t use this as an excuse to get out of anything.”
